Monday, August 8, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD - Strong impulsive decline to 0.6100 still expected





AUD/USD - Strong impulsive decline to 0.6100 still expected 

My preferred count still calls for more downside in wave [5] of (C) to complete the long term decline from 1.1080.

Wave 1 of [5] began at 0.7835 and completed at 0.7141 and was followed by a complex corrective rally to 0.7676 in wave 2. Wave 3 is now in its very infancy, but is expected to accelerate lower in the coming weeks.

Zooming in on wave 3, we can see the first minor impulsive decline (i) began at 0.7676 and completed at 0.7418 and was followed by a strong correction in wave ii that completed on Friday with a high seen at 0.7664. Wave c of ii turned into an ending diagonal and the break below the ending diagonal support-line near 0.7640 triggered the completion of wave ii and the onset of wave iii.

Wave iii of 3 is normally the strongest of all the impulsive waves and is regarded as the wonder to behold. During this wave prices move very strongly and the decline is expected to become almost vertical.

The ideal target for wave [5] of (C) is seen at 0.6100 where wave [5] will be equal in length to wave [1].

A break above 0.7664 will seriously question this count, but only a break above 0.7835 will invalidate this count altogether.

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