Monday, August 29, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD - Wave [5] lower to 0.6102 developing




AUD/USD - Wave [5] lower to 0.6102 developing 

AUD/USD has been declining since late July 2011 high at 1.1080. The first part of the decline from 1.1080 to 0.9387 is clearly in three waves and the following sideways consolidation best counts as a triangle. Triangles can only be seen as wave four's, B-waves or X-waves within the Elliott Wave Principle. This triangle can't be a wave four triangle so it has to be either a B-wave triangle or an X-wave triangle. Both will call for more downside, but the X-wave triangle would call for a new zig-zag correction and the decline from 1.0583 is clearly impulsive, which is why I have labeled it wave B. 

As just said, the decline from 1.0583 is clearly impulsive. Wave [1] decline from 1.0583 to 0.8845 and was followed by a simple zig-zag correction in wave [2] to 0.9758. Wave [3] wasan almost perfect 1.618 times extension of wave [1] and completed at 0.6901 and was followed by an expanded flat wave [4] 0.7835. 

This means wave [5] lower now is unfolding to below the low of wave [3] at 0.6901. The Elliott Wave Principle says, that when wave [3] becomes extended, one should expect wave [5] to be equal in length to wave [1] and that will be the case at 0.6102, so that will be the ideal downside target for wave [5]. 

Let's see how wave [5] is developing. wave 1 of [5] decline from 0.7835 to 0.7141 and has been followed by a complex double zig-zag in wave 2 that completed with a failure at 0.7749 and wave 3 of [5] is currently developing. Remember that the third wave is the wonder to behold and the wave we normally will expect to extend and the minimum extension in wave 3 will call for a decline to 0.6643. 

On the way lower to 0.6643 minor downside targets are seen at 0.7328, at 0.7190 and at 0.7104. So once the small consolidation below the broken support-line from 0.7141 is complete, expect downside acceleration towards 0.7328 and lower. 

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