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Monday, March 31, 2014

Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY - Medium term count.

USD/JPY

I continue to look for a much larger correction from the 105.44 high. The first decline from 105.44 to 100.75 was no clean wave and likely best counted as a leading diagonal as wave A and the following rally from 100.75 to 103.76 corrected an almost perfect 61.8% of wave A and is labled wave B and I'm currently looking for a five wave decline in wave C. Of this five wave decline we have likely seen wave i from 103.76 to 101.20 and wave ii is unfolding, but is very close to its termination. I expect a small spike above 102.98 before the next impulsive downside pressure takes over in wave iii towards at least 100.44 and more likely 98.86. Only a break above the top of wave B at 103.76 invalidates my brearish count. 

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