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Wednesday, February 12, 2014

EUR/GBP - Long term count: Look for wave 5 to above 0.9803.

EUR/GBP

Jesus has asked me for my long term view on EUR/GBP, so here we go.

Since the mid-2000 low at 0.5683 we have seen wave 1 as a leading diagonal and a long flat wave 2 followed by a step rise in wave 3 to 0.9803. Wave 3 would have been 2 times longer than wave 1 at 0.9732. Wave 4 should alternate from wave 2, which it has done as it has become a double zig-zag correction. Wave 4 corrected almost exactly 61.8% of wave 3 at 0.7763 and wave 5 to above 0.9803 is now developing. The ideal target for wave 5 is at 1.0365, where wave 5 will be 0.618 times the distance traveled from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3 added to the bottom of wave 4.

Short term we will ideally see support at 0.8185 protect the downside for a break above 0.8350 and more importantly a break above 0.8467 that confirms that wave higher is developing.

4 comments:

  1. Hi EWS,
    do you have an update for GBP / USD? Because I'm short please, as fast as possible. I would like to know how you see it now.

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  2. An WTI update would be great too.

    thx

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thats bad but I think invalidation point of this bearish count is 1.6670 and a break above 1.6746 will confirm that wave E is ended with a test of 1.6350

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Paulina and Aman,

    I have updated my view on GBP/USD and I will give it to Aman that the break above 1.6624 will indicate that wave E ended with a sub-normal wave (a did warn about this possibility). A break above 1.6746 will confirm that the B-wave triangle is over and wave C much higher developing.

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete