Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for February 7 - 2014

EUR/JPY

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 139.55

R2: 139.15

R1: 138.89

Current Spot: 138.80

S1: 138.45

S2: 138.09

S3: 137.59

Technical Summary:

The failure to break lower has forced a short term recount. We knew that the decline from 145.69 was a correction, but I was looking for a five wave decline as wave A, this is still a possibility, but for this count to stay valid resistance at 139.15 has to protect the upside for a break below 138.45 and more importantly a break below 137.54 that confirms the above Count, for a decline towards 134.87. If however, resistance at 139.15 is broken, then my alternate count (see below) becomes the preferred count. This count shows that wave A already is in place in what will be a major flat correction, but more about this count if resistance at 139.15 is broken.



 

 

EUR/NZD

 

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6605

R2: 1.6549

R1: 1.6510

Current Spot: 1.6495

S1: 1.6475

S2: 1.6417

S3: 1.6347

Technical Summary:

With a slightly new low at 1.6347 I have had to move wave E of the major X-wave triangle, but overall I'm still looking for a major rally high soon. Short term I expect support at 1.6475 to protect the downside for a break above 1.6549 that confirms a continuations higher towards 166.05 and 1.6779. A break above the later confirms a thrust out of the triangle for a rally towards at least 1.8543. We do hope the visibility will become better soon, but major corrections as the one we are looking at, tend to have long periods where the visibility and the probability is low.

If a break below 1.6475 is seen, a delay of the upside will be seen for a move closer to 1.6454 before higher again. At no point can a break below 1.6347 be allowed as that will invalidate the above count.