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Wednesday, February 5, 2014

AUD/USD - I have changed my short term count due to the break above 0.8888.

AUD/USD

The long term support line from late 2011 once again protected the downside. The break above 0.8888 as I said in my last post from January 25 here has invalidated the short term Count. However, that doesn't mean that I expect a new powerful rally. The break above 0.8888 has opened up for a move into the 0.8920 - 0.8959 zone (we are already there) and once the top of wave c of the expanded flat correction is in place closer to 0.8959 I will be looking for renewed downside pressure. A break below support at 0.8833 will be the first indication the the downside pressure is back, while a break below 0.8690 will confirm a new impulsive decline is developing.
At this point only a break above resistance at 0.9086 would be confusing for my medium and long term picture.

Longer term I'm still looking for the 2011 support line to break and see acceleration lower towards the 0.8065 target and possibly even lower.


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