Today I would like to do something I would normally never do, but I think Jeff's chart deserves special treatment.
You all know, trying to figure out a bottom for the decline from 1.7274 has been more than a pain. It is here is think Jeff's chart could give us a helping hand, if we break below 1.6325.
Let's take it from the low at 1.5080:
Wave i went from 1.5080 to 1.5611.
Wave ii corrected a perfect 70.7% of wave i at 1.5236.
Wave iii rallied an almost perfect 3.618 times wave i to 1.7109 (the perfect 3.618 times wave i target would have been at 1.7157).
Wave iv became a very complex correction correcting between 38.2% - 50% of wave ii ending at 1.6395 (the 38.2% correction target of wave iii was at 1.6393)
Finally wave v rallied to 1.7153 just below the 38.2% target of the distance traveled from 1.5080 to 1.7109 added to the bottom of wave iv, which would have given an ideal target at 1.7168.
Since the wave v high at 1.7153 we have been in an expanding flat correction, where wave B ended above the starting point of wave A.
That Means we should be looking for wave C below the ending point of wave A and ideally wave C will have some Fibonacci relationship to wave A and that would leave us with the following targets for wave C:
1.236 X wave i = 1.6249
1.382 X wave i = 1.6128, which also is very close to the 50% correction target of wave 1 at 1.6117
1.618 X wave i = 1.5932, while the 61.8% correction target of wave 1 comes in at 1.5872
As we have a cluster in the 1.6117 - 1.6125 range I will think that would be the ideal target for this wave C
Hello EWS,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for this alternate count .However i wonder if finally EUR/NZD breaks the 6325 and the C wave reach one of the above targets what we can expect from there as we will have a daily bearish convergence?You think the 1.80 target will be still valid long term or we have to reconsider it much lower?
Thanks in advance,
Panos
Hi Panos,
DeleteI have not changed my long term call for much higher levels for the EUR/NZD cross.
To me it's just a question if we are under way already or we are going to be delayed a Little longer before the NeXT powerful rally higher.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi EWs
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update But I think I would remain persistent with your earlier call and see the firday bottom or maximum we can go lower to 1.6204 on daily as there are strong signals of this trend to go above 1.8190 on longer term and we should see price hold above 1.6204 area
My sincerest regards for the our concern
take care
happy weekend
Hi EWs, may I join the discussion with you and other readers :)
ReplyDeleteIMHO, EURNZD experienced a "Running Flat" Wave IV, with a-b-c 3-3-5 structure. wave c is almost equal wave a within Running Flat. Overall, wave IV correct 38.2 of Wave III. More importantly, in this scenario, we clearly see divergence between wave III and V - very typical for impulsive wave structure, i consider this divergence as confirmation for this count.
http://d.pr/i/NnMx
So IMO, EURNZD is correcting the whole advance from 1.5080. In term of price magnitude, market has retraced 38.2%, down to previous wave IV level - an ideal area to end correction. But in term of time magnitude, 8 down days are not enough to correct 100 days advance. So i assume the decline 1.7275 is the A leg within bigger A-B-C zigzag correction
Please comment on this.
Happy weekend to you and other readers. I do enjoy this blog. Please keep it running :)
Hi Vu Duc,
ReplyDeleteYou are more than welcome to join.
You Count is a valid Count too and I totally agree with you, that the decline seen from 1.7274 is not enough to correct all of the rally from 1.5080 and both more price-action and time is needed.
A nice weekend to you too.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi EWs, thanks for your feedback :)
DeleteI'd like to ask the markets we cover. Can we discuss other major pair as well: For e.g.: GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDJPY and Gold. :D
Hi Vu Duc,
DeleteOf cause you can.
I will normally do my very best to answer all questions.
So plaese feel free to ask.
Kind regards
EWS