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Sunday, September 15, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of NZD/USD - Time for the next big decline?


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Panos asked me whether I think that we could see a move higher towards 0.92 in this cross?

I don't think we will see a move towards 0.92. In my view we have seen a major A-B-C rally since the 0.3902 low in October 2000. Wave A went from 0.3902 to 0.7465, while wave B became a large expanded flat correction and ended at 0.4891 and finally we saw wave c move higher to 0.8843 in August 2011. Currently we are seeing a new major decline and it should be a question about time before we will break below important support at 0.7679, which will call for a continuation towards at least 0.7145 and likely even deeper towards 0.6566.

Short term a break below 0.8091 will be the first indication, that the next part of the major decline has begun.

2 comments:

  1. Hello EWS,

    Thank you so much for your amazing analysis and im glad im wrong on this one.

    Have a nice week!

    Many regards,
    Panos

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    Replies
    1. Hi Panos,

      You are welcome.

      You have to be aware, that the analysis you have done could be correct and that I'm wrong. All we can do is try to figure out which option we think has the highste possibility and if it turn out, that we picked the wrong Count as our preferred Count, then we must adapt and be flexible.

      The Count above is my preferred Count and in my view the rally from the 0.7693 is corrective, It's overlapping and does not look impulsive in any way, but when dealing with the Financial markets you never know anything for sure.

      Kind regards
      EWS

      Kind regards
      EWS

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