Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for September 27 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.71

R2: 134.00

R1: 133.58

Current Spot: 133.19

S1: 132.88

S2: 132.68

S3: 132.27

Technical Summary:

As we broke back below the neckline of the inverted S/H/S bottom, that was of cause invalidated and caused a deeper decline. However, the short term count with the highest odds, shows a possible new and even bigger inverted S/H/S bottom developing (see the 15 minute chart below). To trigger this bottom we need a break above 133.58 and more importantly a break above 134.00, which will call for a rally higher towards 135.32 on the way higher to 137.45.

The risk to the above scenario is a break below 132.88, that will shift the odds towards the expanding leading diagonal I mentioned a few days ago. If this count becomes the preferred count we are only in wave ii and should see a deeper correction towards 132.11 and maybe even lower towards 131.43 before wave ii is over.

 

EUR/JPY 15 Minuet

 

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6437

R2: 1.6368

R1: 1.6315

Current Spot: 1.6265

S1: 1.6222

S2: 1.6173

S3: 1.6089

Technical Summary:

Wave i ended earlier than I expected. I expected wave i end near 1.6565, but it was obviously not the case. We are currently hoovering around the 50% retracement target of wave i, which comes in at 1.6263 and could see a deeper correction towards the 61.8% retracement target at 1.6222 this corrective target will ideally protect the downside, but we will have to remember, that second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, but it can never ever break below the starting point of wave i. 

Short term it will take a break above 1.6296 and more importantly a break above 1.6315 to confirm that wave ii is over and wave iii is developing for a rally higher towards at least 1.6565 and possibly even higher. Longer term I'm looking for a rally above 1.7274.