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Thursday, October 18, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - Is currently correcting in wave iv of 5. This minor wave iv is expected to end between 1.3037 and 1.3060 for the last rally higher towards the target area between 1.3283 - 1.3315, from where will should experience a bigger decline.
 GBP/USD - Wasn't able to break above the resistance line at 1.6167, which needs to be broken to confirm that the correction from 1.6310 is indeed over. However it will take a break below 1.6021 to confirm, that a more complex correction from 1.6310 is ongoing. As long as support at 1.6021 holds firm I will be looking for a break above 1.6167 as the most likely scenario. A break above 1.6167 will open up for a rally towards 1.6310 on the way towards 1.6747.
EUR/JPY - As I said yesterday, this cross is the leader and here we have already seen a break above the September 17 high at 103.85. That means we can now count five waves from the 94.10 low and thereby the basic impulsive structure is fulfilled, however I do think that this is only a wave iv of 5, which ideally will end between 102.96 and 103.25 for the last rally higher towards 104.71, from where the biggest correction since the this impulsive rally started at 94.10 will be seen.
EUR/NZD - Has most likely already ended its blue wave ii and should be ready to take of in the powerful blue wave iii. A break above 1.5987 will confirm that the next rally is well under way. At no point should we see a break below 1.5873 and more importantly a break below 1.5788 as that would leave us with a three wave correction of the 1.5700 low and indicate that a more complex correction is ongoing.

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