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Monday, October 1, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; Gold and Facebook

EUR/USD - Is very close to confirm, that blue wave 4 is done at blue wave 5 is well under way. So what do we need to get the final confirmation? A break above 1.2960 would do it and confirm that a new impulsive rally towards 1.3197 and possibly even 1.3320 is developing.
The risk is, however, a break below 1.2803, that would call for one last move towards the 1.2725 - 1.2750 area before blue wave 4 finally finds its bottom.
EUR/JPY - Contrary to EUR/USD a new bottom wasn't seen in this cross and all we need now is a break above 101.05 to confirm that a new impulsive rally in wave 5 is under way.
Short term I expect a a small decline towards 100.35 - 100.45 before the next powerful rally above 101.05 sets in.
Only a break below 99.77 invalidates my bullish count.
Gold - Do we need one more decline in red wave 4 close to 1,718 or did red wave 4 end already at 1,736.27 and red wave 5 is well under way by now? The rally from 1,736.27 does have a impulsive look to it and therefor we could see a move higher towards 1,821.40 and possibly even 1,874.40 before wave 1 of 5 tops out.
Facebook - Here we should soon see a powerful rally in wave 3 or c from 17.55. The first target for wave 3 or c is at 29.07.
The correction from 23.36 could turn into a more complex correction, but I'm more inclined to think that the correction ended already at 19.80 and a clear break above 23.36 will be seen soon.

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