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Monday, October 8, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; Crude Oil; Apple and Facebook

 EUR/USD - Should be close to a bottom or have bottomed already for the next powerful up move above 1.3071 towards 1.3185 and higher. A break above 1.2993 will be the first indication that we have seen a bottom in green wave ii and green wave iii is under way.
At no point should we see a break below 1.2877 as that will leave us with a three wave rally from 1.2805 to 1.3071 and call for a deeper correction in blue wave 4.
 EUR/JPY - Here too we should soon see a new rally higher through 102.79 as blue wave v progresses. I do think we should have a fair chance to see black wave 5 end near 104.41.
Short term the correction from 102.79 should be over or very close to being so and set the stage for the next rally higher. However we need a break above 102.08 to confirm that blue wave v is under way.
 EUR/NZD - The rally from the 1.5453 low has been a true Elliott wave textbook rally. It has been in five nice waves. Red wave iii extended more than 3 time the length of red wave i. Red wave ii and red wave iv alternated and finally red wave v became almost exactly 50% of the length of the rally from the bottom of red wave i to the top of red wave iii. The rally from 1.5453 to 1.5966 marked only wave i in a much bigger rally and we should now be looking for wave ii, which ideally should end at 1.5770 but is of cause allowed to retrace more of wave i.
 Crude Oil - Seems to be building a series of waves one's and two's. If this is the case we should soon see a series of very powerful sharp and deep wave three's. I'm looking for a decline to 78.67 as the first target. The risk to this scenario is of cause a break above 93.35 that would invalidate the expected downside pressure and call for a move towards 96.00 first. 
 Apple - Has broken below support at 656.00, which indicates that a top is in place and a deeper correction towards at least 522 should be seen.
That said if support at 617 holds for a break back above 682 we will see one last rally above 705 closer to 720 before the big corrections sets in. This should not be taken as an opportunity to buy, but more as one last opportunity to sell Apple out before the big correction, which will likely take months to unfold.
Facebook - Should be close to end its correction from 23.36. Once this correction find its bottom in the range from 18.79 - 19.77 we should see a powerful rally in wave 3, which I expect will extend to 28, where wave 3 will be 1.618 times longer than wave 1.
This decline offers a nice buy with a stop just below 17.55.

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