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Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Silver - Working on wave iv of 5


Please see my post from May 2 first:
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/05/gold-and-silver-ready-for-next-leg.html

The picture in silver hasn't change that much since my May 2 update. We are still working on wave iv, which I still expect to reach the 29-30 area and possible even the 25-26 area (the pink box), from where we should see the last wave higher towards the 52-53 area. Be aware that a break above the 49.51 top will increase the risk of a major top dramatic.

Please notice that we don't have divergence on my proprietary indicator or the MACD-forest indicator. That said divergence is not a necessity. Take a look at the monthly chart below of Crude oil. When oil topped in July 2008 neither my proprietary indicator nor MACD-forest showed and divergence. This is the case when you see extension in wave v of 5, therefore we can't exclude the possibility that we already have seen a major top in silver, but to confirm that we need to See a break below 19.43 (the top of wave i).

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