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Monday, July 25, 2011

EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil - Short term

We tested the 144.38 high, but wasn't able to break deeper into the resistance-band. The rejection from this area adds confidence to my count, but that said the price-action isn't convincing yet. I would like to see more dynamic action towards the downside. A break below 143.22 and the lower Andrews Pitchfork line should do the job.
At no point should we see a break above 144.38 and more improtantly 144.59 which would invalidate the short term bearish count.



Failure to reach support at 1,575 has made a slight change to my short term count. I think the above count is a better count and should still produce the rally to 1,636 before a major top might be in place.

There still is a slight possibility that the rally to 1,609.51 was a wave i and that we have seen wave ii at 1,583 and we are now in wave iii up. This is not my preferred count, but can't be excluded yet. Ane break below 1,581 should be a warning that an important top might be in place.



Not much to add here. I'm still looking for a continuations towards the 104.63 and maybe even the 106.30 area before wave (B) is finished and wave (C) down to 81.25 can begin.

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