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Thursday, July 14, 2011

EUR/USD - Back in no mans land

The break above 141.36, but importantly 142.04 yesterday blow my count. I have been back to the drawingboard. I'm still bearish looking for wave c of [E], which should take us down close to 128.71 eventually. The challenge for us is to figure out how we will get there. I'm divided between two brearish counts. The first is, that we are looking at a serie of 1-2's (see the chart above and zoomed in below). My hesitance towards this count is, that this count has worked very poorly many time in the last couple of years. The second count is, that wave B was a triangle, which gave away with the break below 140.71. My hecitance here is, that we are back into the triangle, which never is a good sign (see the second chart below), but for now I will stay on bearish ground and look for a break down from the rising channel from 138.35, which will be seen at 141.52. A break below 140.54 will confirm the rally from 138.35 was a correction and call for a break below 138.35.

A break above 142.81 and more importantly 143.74 will be a serious threat to the bearish count.



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