If we can have one more minor push above 81.98 we have a very nice five wave rally from the 76.99 all-time low bottom. That means that we could have a major long term bottom in place in USD/JPY. If we break above 81.98 we should see a top near 82.68. When this five wave rally is done, we should see a deep zig-zag down to at least 80.51, but more likely we will see wave 2 end in the 78 - 79 area. This should provide an excellent long term buy-oppotunity.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
USD/JPY - Just one more minor push and wave 1 is done
If we can have one more minor push above 81.98 we have a very nice five wave rally from the 76.99 all-time low bottom. That means that we could have a major long term bottom in place in USD/JPY. If we break above 81.98 we should see a top near 82.68. When this five wave rally is done, we should see a deep zig-zag down to at least 80.51, but more likely we will see wave 2 end in the 78 - 79 area. This should provide an excellent long term buy-oppotunity.
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How could this be a long term "buy" opportunity if we go from 82.68-81.98 area to 78-79 area.
ReplyDeleteis this not more likely to be a "sell".....????
Regards,
Nicosxm
Hi Nicosxm
ReplyDeleteFirst take a look at my post here:
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/03/usdjpy-at-long-term-bottom.html
That will give you an idea of why I'm calling it a long term buy.
As you can see we had a triangle wave 4 in the Primary degree and we even had a wave 4 triangle at the intermediate degree both calling for a thrust out of the triangle to the downside, which we got. At the same time the call the last decline in the direction of the trend iof the primary and intermediate degree.
Therefor the five wave rally from 76.99 tells us, that the least we can expect is and zig-zag correction, where wave A is about to end (breaking above 82.68 a top could be found near 83.29). That should be followed by a wave B (three waves) and then one more five wave rally to the upside.
However if we have seen a long term bottom at 76.99, then this five wave rally just represents wave 1 and then we should be looking for a much bigger rally to the upside.
Hope it gives you an idea to why it call it a long term buy.
Regards
EWS
Hello EWS,
ReplyDeleteDo you still believe 83.29 is the top, or do you think wave 5 is going higher? How did you come up with this number?
By the way, very nice work with your analyses. I find it to be the best I have seen.
ReplyDeleteHi John!
ReplyDeleteThanks! Much appreciated
I still do think, that 83.29 would mark a nice top for the rally from 76.99. That said we are dealing with the micro count here, so it could easily break above this level and continue higher towards 83.98 and even 84.53, but we know, that we will get a wave two sooner or later.
First 83.29 marks the minor top on March 11. If yoy take the 50% of wave one though wave three and add it to the bottom of wave four you should get a top at 83.26. So a top around that area would be nice.
Regards
EWS