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Friday, March 18, 2011

S&P 500 - We now have 3 waves down

We now have three waves down from 1,344. It's still an open question whether this is the start of a new impulsive wave down or we only are in wave 4 down.

My greatest concern is, that the possible wave 3 down had a lot of overlapping waves, which makes it more possible, that we are only in wave 4 calling for one more new high.

Looking at the Pitchfork it would make better sense if wave 3 ended at 1,344 and that wave 4 is developing.

That said we can't neglect that we could be in an impulsive new decline from 1,344. The possible wave 3 is 1.618 times longer than wave 1. If the possible wave 4 is capped at or below 1,281 for one more decline in wave 5, the following correction will reveal which count is the right one.

But for now we should continue to be focused on the downside or at least more sideways correction.

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