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Friday, March 25, 2011

S&P 500 - Is the X wave finished?

The rally since the 1,248.83 is clearly corrective in its form, which it should be forming wave X. The question whether it's finished as a double zig-zag or we need one more zig-zag forming a triple zig-zag targeting the 1,331 area. A break below 1,284.09 will confirm that the double zig-zag was enough, while a minor correction to 1,297 followed by a break above 1,312 will argue that we is in need for a thrid zig-zag.

No matter which outcome I still regard the decline from the 1,344.03 high as a wave 4 (see my post)

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/03/s-500-we-are-in-wave-4.html

Is the no possibility, that an important top did form at 1,344.03? Yes there is one, that an Expanding Leading Diagonal is forming. If this is the case we should not see the 1,312 area broken and a sharp decline down towards at least 1,207 and more likely 1,176 ending wave 1 down. Time will show which count is the rigth one, but for now I favor the wave 4 scenario.

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