Every thing point to a important top being in place with the test of 1,302.42.On January the 20 in my post (http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/01/s-500-top-in-place.html) I said a break below 1,261.78 would confirm a top, but we only reached 1,271.30, which kept the uptrend alive. A break below 1,271.30 this time will confirm that an important top has been seen. My favorite count is, that we have seen wave 2 end at 1,302.42 and should ultimately see a break below 1,011.52. If at any time a break below 1,011.52 is seen we can expect a much deeper decline.
Looking at the 5 minute chart below we can count a impulsive 5 wave decline of the top at 1,302.42, that could just be a wave c-decline, but if this is the case we should soon see a break back above 1,297.03.
If however resistance at 1,288.90 - 1,289.92 holds for a decline back below 1,275, that would increase the odds of an important top dramatically and call for a continuation towards at least 1,264.60 and more likely 1,249.02.
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