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Friday, January 14, 2011

EUR/USD - More upside needed, but...

The possible wave 2 of 5 has become much bigger, than first anticipated. As can be seen the Stoch. indicator has rolled over to the downside, but should soon do so.

The minor reaction from the 133.84 high lookes like a minor wave iv correction, which means that more upside is needed, but we are close to the start of wave 1 at 134.33, which can't be broken, as that would changes the bigger picture. A break above 134.33 would indicate, that a fuld five wave decline ended at 128.63 or that the correction from 129.64 (bottom of wave 3) is ongoing and call for further upside.

I will try to short EUR here in front of resistance at 134.33, with a stop at 134.40. It's not a low risk trade, but the loss will be very low if I will be stopped out.
The safe trade would be to wait for a break below 133,21 with at stop placed at 134,40 too.

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