The above count is my preferred at this point. As it can be seen it points to a full five wave rally since the low in late 2008. That means the upside at the very least is limited at this point, if not an important top is in place, as per my prefereed count. The evidence pointing towards an important top being in place is negative divergence at the weekly stoch. indicator and ofcause the complet five wave rally.To confirm the top we need a break below support at 95.42 (the bottom of wave iv of 5), but a clear break below the minor support-line will be further indication, that an important top is in place.
Finally looking at the hourly chart. we can see a five wave decline from 102.53, which at the very least indicats , that we shall see a Zig-zag correction lower. I do expect that this was only the first leg lower in a much deeper decline to the bottom of wave 4 at 80.90, which is also the 50% retracemnet target for the rally from 60.73 to 102.53.
The next leg lower should be seen, when the hourly stoch. indicator rolls over to the downside.
Dear EWS,
ReplyDeleteI had written to you earlier as well and wanted to say it once again... I love your analysis and work..This is my most visited blog and I have learnt so much.
In regards to your AUD/USD analysis...Do u think we are in beginning of a wave 3? there was a clear ABC (2) pattern as a corrective wave to the 61.8 retracement levels from its top... Just wanted to see what your views were.. Thank you.
Cheers!
Regards,
Ravi Bhagia