Yesterday I wrote, that I had examined the possibility for the decline to be a Leading diagonal i the EUR/USD cross on the hourly time frame. I wrote that it wasn't a option as Leading Diagonals come in 5-3-5-3-5 in either wave 1 or A, which wasn't the case here. Infinitus later wrote a comment to me that Prechter tenth edition of "The Elliott Wave Principle" says that Leading Diagonals maybe could be 3-3-3-3-3, but the jury is still out there.
I can't exclude, that Leading Diagonals could be 3-3-3-3-3 affairs, but in my view that would be a direct violation of Elliott's impulse rule, that wave 1,3 and 5 has to be five wave affairs.
Infinitus asked me if I had ever seen a Leading Diagonal on one of the major time frames? My first answer was no, but then I came to remember USD/CHF, which had the right shape, but I have always regarded it as an Ending Diagonal, but reviewing wave 1,3 and 5 they do look impulsive to me, which makes the Leading Diagonal a real possibility. Wave 2 and 4 also became zigzag's which adds credence in the Leading Diagonal view. I had to use the St. Louis FED data, as mine only goes back to 1984, while the FED data goes back to 1970.
The other alternative would be an Ending diagonal. Ultimately the outcome would be a major USD-rally.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeletegreat find. Very good. I have usually only EURUSD and UDX on my screen. But I will keep an eye on that one too. Very interesting.
Best to you,
Infinitus