AUD/USD - We are in last part of the rally

Jem has asked me for my view on AUD/USD. This cross has been a very tough call. Wave 4 broke the nice wave 2-4 channel (the gray channel) after what could look like a fifth failure an fell in five waves, but it turned out to be wave c of 4. Despite the following break above 94.05 the end of wave 3, I still view the rally from 60.04 as wave [B] in a major flat or expanded flat correction. If the current rally is part of a flat correction (my preferred count), then we should be very close to the top. We might need a little longer time-wise before the top is finally set, but not necessary a much higher high. The two boxes I have drawn represent my best estimates of a time extreme.

If I'm right that the current rally since the 60.04 low is just part (wave [B]) of an major flat correction, then we should soon see wave [C] down take over. Wave [C] should ideally end below the end of wave [A], which means that the low of wave [C] would be below 60.04 in late 2011 (ideally around December 13 - 2011).

If this tunes out to be a expanded flat correction we could see this [B] rally extend to the 107 area and in its extreme the 113 area. If this is the case at no time should we see a break below 92.08, before the top near 107 or 113 is in place.

In the short term a break below 95.40 and more importantly 94,60 would weaken the bullish case and add caution for a possible top.

By the way, the last part of the rally from 87.69 seem to be exponentially in shape, which should add caution in stability of this rally too.