![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivCd3LxVHkpxi7jXWYnSS54beQbaVUQUsFbpMGgPiNtpGtgXBF0ymbbHq__fxSR4XCbvY7ijE2jq2U4uULElpHPBWh_-7fe8F05y4kaxc1IJ0Fj1MKmK176BCsK8SXU2GJGk6DEd5WVa4/s400/image002.gif)
If this bearish count is good, then wave 2 should be very close to it's top. At 1,173.46 it will be at the top of wave 4 of one lessor degree, that's a pretty common ending point for wave 2.
As showed in the previous post, the VIX has now giving two signals, that the S&P 500 is close to a top. It's time to be cautious.
Maybe the USD is the one to turn to for a clue. EUR/USD has reached its ideal target area (The red box - see the chart below) and it has broken above the rising channel, which could be a warning of exhaustion too.
Finally the extrem negative sentiment towards the USD is almost unpresidented, also warning of exhaustion soon.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEhBzefYbTyseaDMNhNmHvhCwqa8pV8B36V6KfvBIPSPVWJaB1ph8bIdKohBv6Ala7qPe0jokIn4K3QhSNROaMF4ZhUfk237t5eJndAkEjzyREZ_rbKm1zyh6EdP1cXuZQ0wvhpVrBFUM/s400/image002.gif)
Looking at the hourly chart we can see that EUR/USD has broken below the rising channel and has tested the backside of the rising channel, what's needed now is a break below support at 137.73 to trigger a minor double top an confirm a decline to at least 135.17 and more likely the 133.60 - 133.30 area.
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