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Wednesday, October 13, 2010

S&P 500 - Topping?

If this bearish count is good, then wave 2 should be very close to it's top. At 1,173.46 it will be at the top of wave 4 of one lessor degree, that's a pretty common ending point for wave 2.

As showed in the previous post, the VIX has now giving two signals, that the S&P 500 is close to a top. It's time to be cautious.

Maybe the USD is the one to turn to for a clue. EUR/USD has reached its ideal target area (The red box - see the chart below) and it has broken above the rising channel, which could be a warning of exhaustion too.

Finally the extrem negative sentiment towards the USD is almost unpresidented, also warning of exhaustion soon.

Looking at the hourly chart we can see that EUR/USD has broken below the rising channel and has tested the backside of the rising channel, what's needed now is a break below support at 137.73 to trigger a minor double top an confirm a decline to at least 135.17 and more likely the 133.60 - 133.30 area.




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