DJI - Meeting heavy resistance

In Thailand the local Thai's had a saying "Same same but different" and I do think it goes well with yesterdays new high in the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) and Gold (new all time high in USD). These two majors was the only majors making a new high among all the majors. S&P 500, Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, UK-FTSE 100, DAX, all stayed below their year high. Looking at the BRIC countries they also didn't make new highs yesterday. In fact the Shanghai Composite already toppede in late August, The Indian Sensex topped in late October and both the Brazilian Bovespa and the Russian stock index topped on November 18 2009.

Could this be it? Yes!
DJI is facing triple resistance, meeting the 50% retracement target of wave [A]at 10,340.88, wave C equals wave A at 10,501.29, the trendline resistance back from October 2007 comes in at 10,502.71 today, which is also where the minor resistance line from May 11 2009 comes in today. Are we going to see one more new high in DJI closer to the 10,500 area? We might, but I'm sure it will prove difficulte to exceed yesterdays high at 10,495.61.

What would happen if resistance at 10.500 is cleared? A clear break above 10,500 would call for a continuation higher towards 11,232.83 area, where the 61.8% retracement target of wave [A] is found.

Looking at gold everybody wants it and they wants is bad. We all know what will happen, when the last fool (it is not I) has bought it in a vending machine at the airport or at Harolds UK it has but one way to go.

Let's be a bit more serious. We are in Wave C up from the October 24 2008 low at 680.80. At 1,188.85 wave C will equal wave A in lenght. We are currently testing channel resistance, but when the hype gets going, there is no saying when it stops, but it will stop...

A break below 1,129.50 would be first warning that the top is in place, and of cause a five wave decline followed by a three wave correction would be the ideal set-up.

You know I'm bearish, but I haven't been this brearish since the beginning of the year. The failure for the USD-index to make a new low alongside DJI is a major warning sign to me. The five decline in AUD ag. USD (wave i) is a major warning (AUD leads - see my post below). The major collaps in the Shanghai Composite overnight, the lack of followthough in the equity leaders the emerging market indicies should cause concern. I think FED and Wall Street is fighting a loosing battle trying to have us all belive that all is well...