Black Swan event - Dubai not paying its debt

I'm in a bit of a hurry this morning, so it will just be a quick update.

Just as our eyes was fixed on the Baltics countries, Greece, Spain or maybe one of the minor Eastern European countries running into trouble, the state owned company "Dubai World's" yesterday annouced it would not pay off interest of its debt in December. This is a Black Swan event, just as the collapse of the two Bear Stearns Funds was it in 2007, exposing the trouble with the Sub-prime loans.

Dubai World's failure to pay interest on its debt burden will be the trigger causing a new round of risk aversion. This is the event exposing the fact, that not all is okay and the return to "normal" only was due to Government intervention.



This might be a early call (maybe even too early), but the bubble in Gold might have bursted. A break below 1,129.50 would confirm the collapse of the bubble calling for a return to at least 1,022.00, but if this is the start of wave C we will see much lower levels.

The last couple of weeks we have heard over and over again, that the rise in Gold isn't due to speculation... but something totally different. Gold is now being regarded as a new safe asset-class. We have heard this song many times before. At the top of the housing bubble almost everybody said, that it wasn't a bubble. What aboute at the top of the Dot.com bubble, almost everybody call it the "New economy". I could keep on going, but there is no need.

If wave B has topped with the 1,194.90, it was just above the ideal target at 1,188.95, where wave c of B would equal wave a of B.



Crude oil has broken its uptrend-line, we do need a close below the uptrend-line '
(73.77 today) to get confirmation of a change in trend, but it's seriously weakning the uptrend. a close below 73.77 would call for a decline to at least the low 58 area.




AUD/USD broke and closed below the uptrend-line since early March yesterday. As stated yesterday we had a clear five wave move down followed by a three wave correction to 93.22 ending minor wave 2 and we are currently seeing minor wave 3 in motion, which should reach at least 87.63, but the decline will be much deeper in the bigger picture.




NZD/USD has broken below important support at 70.70 confirming lower tops and lower bottoms calling for much lower levels.