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Tuesday, November 24, 2009
AUD/USD - Top in place?
Above is my prefered count showen on a daily and hourly chart.
Looking at the daily chart we can see a impulsiv decline from 98.49 (July 15 2008) to 60.04 (October 27 2008), which I have labled red wave [A]. From 60.04 red wave [B] has unfolded with a likely top in place at 94.05 (November 16 2009).
As can be seen on the daily chart we are currently testing the supportline established since March 2009 and a break below this support line will confirm that red wave [C] is unfolding.
The rise since March 2009 has taken on a bearish wedge shape, which also will be triggered upon a break below the support line at 90.58, calling for a sharp decline.
Zooming in on the daily chart the hourly chart is showing a five wave decline from 94.05 down to 90.58(slightly breaking below the support line in minor wave i). Wave ii ended yesterday at 92.77 with an almost perfect 61.8% retracement of wave i at 92.72. If my count is correct minor wave iii is in its early stages and a break below important support at 90.58 will soon be seen. Only an unexpected break above
92.72 would call for a new high above 94.05.
AUD found its low already in late October 2008 and thereby was amongst the leaders of the ongoing rally, will it also lead the way down?
It's a bit early to tell, but it should come as no surprice if it does.
Australia has benefited a great deal because of its geographly placement close to China delivering a lot of the commodities China needs, but remember that the Shanghai Composite topped already in early August. The Shanghai Composite also bottomed in late October 2008 as the AUD did, leading the way up for the equity markets. Overnight the Shanghai Composite took a nosedive with a 3.45% fall, which very well was the start of wave 3 of C down to below the October 28 2008 bottom at 1,664.92.
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