Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

With a test of 130.53 my ideal wave iii of 5 target at 130.90 is within striking distance. As long as minor support at 129.37 keeps protecting the downside, we should ideally see a move closer to our target, but we are very close to a top and a break below 129.37 would be the first indication, that wave iii of 5 is over and wave iv of 5 taking over. The first target for wave iv of 5 will be at 127.89. As wave ii of 5 was a very deep and relatively simple structure, wave iv of 5 should be a complex and small correction, ideally it will be a triangle, but time will tell.

EUR/NZD

Wave ii has corrected exactly 100% of wave i, which is allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle, but is a rare occurrence. It should also be mentioned, that if wave ii had broken below wave i with just one tick my bullish count would have been invalidated. If wave ii have bottomed at 1.5173, then we should see a break above 1.5228 and more importantly a break above 1.5248 soon, which will be the first good indication, that a bottom might be in place. To confirm the bottom, however, we need a break above 1.5333, which would call for a rally back to 1.5521 in a perfect double bottom. That said we must be aware, that any break below 1.5173 will invalidate my current bullish count, but even if it occurred I still think that the potential downside pressure is very limited.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD

If my count is correct wave iii of 3 is just starting and a very powerful rally should soon unfold. Short term we could see red wave ii a bit deeper towards 1.2371, but from there or upon a break above 1.2536, we should see the next rally higher towards at least 1.2733 and more likely towards 1.2946 and maybe even higher.

Only a break below 1.2160 will invalidate my bullish count and call for a deeper correction before the next rally higher.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

We are clearly seen a loss of upside momentum, but as long as minor support at 129.35 and more importantly support at 128.44 protects the downside I'm still looking for one more new high closer to our ideal target near 130.90. Short term a break above 129.92 will confirm one last rally higher. That said, it should be accepted that we are close to the top of wave iii of 5 and a relatively large correction is to follow. It should not be a deep correction, to the contrary it should be a shallow and complex correction as wave iv of 5 unfolds. The ideal target for this wave iv will likely be at in the 127.77 - 128.03 area. 

EUR/NZD

My ideal corrective target at 1.5333 has been tested and surpassed by a fraction, but I think this correction is close to termination and the next powerful rally about to take off. A break above minor resistance at 1.5371 will be the first indication, that a bottom is in place, while a break above resistance at 1.5462 is needed to confirm that wave ii is over and wave iii higher is unfolding. That said, we must accept, as long as resistance 1.5371 protects the upside, that this wave ii correction could become slightly deeper towards 1.5310.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

There was no time for even a small correction down to 126.67 before the next part of the rally took off. I'm looking for wave iii of 5 to terminate close to 130.90, where wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than wave i (I apologize for writing 2.618 yesterday, but I'm sure it was just fat fingers early in morning...) . Once wave iii is finished wave iv will take over. As wave ii wave a very deep and relatively simple correction we should expect wave iv to be a shallow and complex correction, but for now we should still focus on the upside as wave iii of 5 unfolds, with an ideal target near 130.90.

EUR/NZD

With the break below support at 1.5406 we knew we should be looking for a deeper correction as wave ii unfolded. I expect to see a correction to at least the 1.5333 - 1.5350 area. As it is wave ii it could become deeper, but I have noticed that correction in impulsive waves, in this cross, tend to be sub-normal. Once this correction is over near 1.5333 or upon a break above 1.5462 we should see a powerful rally towards at least 1.5883 and possibly even higher. Short term we expect minor resistance at 1.5419 will protect the upside for a break below 1.5859 confirming one last decline into the target-area between 1.5333 - 1.5350.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

EUR/JPY

The dynamic of the rally from 119.07 clearly tells me, that we are indeed in wave iii of 5. The first possible target for this wave iii, after the break above 127.70, is at 128.76, but I find it more likely to see a continuation higher towards 130.93, where wave iii will be 2.618 times longer than wave i. Short term I expect that support at 126.67 will protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 130.93.

EUR/NZD

A short term high have been established just below my first target at 1.5535. I'm now looking for at 1.5406 to protect the downside for the next rally higher towards resistance at 1.5630 and higher at 1.5770. However, if support at 1.5406 breaks the risk for a deeper correction towards the 1.5333 - 1.5350 area is to be expected before the next rally higher. For the longer term I expect this rally to exceed the top at 1.6359 for a continuation towards at least 1.6697, but this rally will likely be much higher.

Elliott wave analysis of the German Dax Index

German DAX

CJ asked if I would take a look at the German DAX and give my short term view, which I of cause will be happy to do.

But before taking a look at the short term, I think it's important to know where we are in the bigger picture. I think that a major wave 4 triangle is developing. We most likely have just ended wave D or is very close to end wave D and see a major decline in wave E towards 5,905 at least and possibly even lower towards 5,000.

Short term a break below 7,530 will be the first good indication, that wave D is in place already and that wave E lower has begun, while a break below 6,955 will confirm that Wave E is indeed unfolding. However, as long as support at 7,530 has not been broken we couls still see a firm test of strong resistance at 8,141

Looking at the Equity markets World wide I think it would be prudent to ease the risk appetite or at least set levels, where the exposure will be eased dramatically.

Elliott wave analysis of DJIA, Copper, Gold, Silver and Nat. Gas

 

Dow Jones Industrial Index

 

I'm looking for a major top during 2013 followed by a major decline, which will likely terminate sometime during 2016 in wave E of a major expanding wave 4 triangle, before we will see the final rally towards the upside in this super cycle rally.

 

Looking at the daily cycle chart below we can see, that we currently are under pressure from the cycles, but we should see the cycles bottom together some time during mid-April at which time renewed upside pressure should take us higher. That said, we should not forget the seasonal downside pressure from May and into June/July. I would expect a major top some time during the Autumn likely in September or October.



 Copper

Is currently sitting at major support near 3.30 and a break here will call for a major decline towards 2.0. We should see strong support at 3.0 and at 2.74 on the way Down towards 2.0, but for now support at 3.30 is firmly in place and to add more downside pressure a break below 3.30 is needed.

 Gold and Silver

Is walking on a swords edge right now. There is no more room towards the downside or my bullish count will be invalidated and call for a deeper decline. However a break above 1,620 in gold and 29.46 will ease the downside pressure and be the first indication that a bottom is in place and a new powerful rally higher have begun.

Nature Gas

Has clearly broken above resistance near 4.0 and the Next targets should be 5.0 and 6.0. Once we reach 6.0 a large decline should be expected and at this time we will know whether we have seen a large X-wave or a new impulsive rally is taking shape.