Elliott Wave analysis of DJIA, Facebook and Apple

Dow Jones Industrial Index

On April 6 I introduced the above cycle chart, that we could expect some downward pressure from the cycles until mid-April. Even though the cycles where pointing downward the DJIA kept moving higher and just as the cycles bottomed we saw a brief correction, this correction is almost erased as the cycles begin to point higher again. I'm still looking for one last rally higher to complete the D-leg of the expanding triangle, which has been developing since early 2000. Once this D-wave of the expanded triangle is finished we should be looking for a massive decline in wave E (See the chart below).

I would give a Little warning. Yes I do look for one last rally higher, but we are getting very close to a major long term top and it would be very prudent to adapt a risk adverse behavior at this point in time. If my Count is correct we should expect to see much better buying levels in the coming years ahead.

  

Facebook

 

Please see my last post on Facebook here fist: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/04/elliott-wave-analysis-of-dji-facebook.html

 

We saw a nice rally on Friday and we only need a break above 27.80 and more importantly a break above 28.09 to confirm that we did indeed see the bottom of wave ii at 25.57 and that wave iii of 5 higher is developing.  My ideal target for wave 5 is at 34.10, but we should be aware, that it could terminate already at 31.45, but the structure of wave 5 as it unfolds will help us determine, where wave 5 will terminate.

 



Apple

I had a target at 391.05 and we have seen a bottom at 385.12 for now. We are still not out of the Woods yet, but all we need is a break above 437.95 to confirm the bottom and a rally back to at least 503 and possibly even higher to 594.00. However, as long as resistance at 427.55 and more importantly resistance at 437.95 hasn't been broken we could still see a deeper correction closer to 365, but it's not my preferred Count at this point.

What I find reassuring and in favor of a bottom is, that the analytics don't think much of Apple right now. They are not bearish (but then they never are...), but they are not bullish either, which is likely the best outcome for a rally in the coming weeks/months.
After the first quarter result was presented on April 24'th two Danish analyst both said, that they expected, that Apple could fall even more than the 42% it has already fallen from the top (http://investor.borsen.dk/artikel/1/256580/analytiker_intet_hastvaerk_med_apple-aktien.html?hl=QXBwbGU7QXBwbGUmcnNxdW87czthcHBsZQ,, - I know it's in Danish, but the headline says - "No rush with the Apple stock" what they mean is, that there is no rush buying at these levels, as they expect it to fall even more....  They might be right, but I having been able to buy near 391 with a stop at 385.00 a stop of only 1.6% I'm happy being long Apple.

Elliott wave analysis of DJIA, Copper, Gold, Silver and Nat. Gas

 

Dow Jones Industrial Index

 

I'm looking for a major top during 2013 followed by a major decline, which will likely terminate sometime during 2016 in wave E of a major expanding wave 4 triangle, before we will see the final rally towards the upside in this super cycle rally.

 

Looking at the daily cycle chart below we can see, that we currently are under pressure from the cycles, but we should see the cycles bottom together some time during mid-April at which time renewed upside pressure should take us higher. That said, we should not forget the seasonal downside pressure from May and into June/July. I would expect a major top some time during the Autumn likely in September or October.



 Copper

Is currently sitting at major support near 3.30 and a break here will call for a major decline towards 2.0. We should see strong support at 3.0 and at 2.74 on the way Down towards 2.0, but for now support at 3.30 is firmly in place and to add more downside pressure a break below 3.30 is needed.

 Gold and Silver

Is walking on a swords edge right now. There is no more room towards the downside or my bullish count will be invalidated and call for a deeper decline. However a break above 1,620 in gold and 29.46 will ease the downside pressure and be the first indication that a bottom is in place and a new powerful rally higher have begun.

Nature Gas

Has clearly broken above resistance near 4.0 and the Next targets should be 5.0 and 6.0. Once we reach 6.0 a large decline should be expected and at this time we will know whether we have seen a large X-wave or a new impulsive rally is taking shape.