On Thursday December 27 I posted my preferred views on the major USD-corsses (you can see it here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/12/elliott-wave-analysis-of-eurusd-usdchf.html)
However I would like to show you my top alternate count on USD/CHF as this easily could have been my preferred count.
Instead of a wave 1 top at 0.9584 in early January 2012. Wave 1 might first have ended in late July at 0.9972 and the present ongoing correction is wave 2. The question is of cause whether wave 2 has ended already or a deeper correction is needed? As we have seen a correction to the Triangle apex wave 2 could be over. It's very common for wave 2 to terminate at the Triangle apex (where the two lines meet). If wave 2 is over we should soon see a break above 0.9245 and more importantly a break above 0.9383, which will confirm the bottom of the double zig-zag correction from 0.9972 and a new test of resistance at 0.9972. Looking at the long term picture of USD/CHF (see the monthly chart below) a break above resistance at 0.9972 is needed to confirm a more bullish long term view.
I have no count on the monthly chart, but you will likely be able to see my drift, without any difficulties.
If for you long term usdchf is up that means eurusd down, rigth? but i read your eurusd long term is up....this two pairs have negative correlation...the strongest correlation in forex market.
ReplyDeleteHi Zink
ReplyDeleteYou are right, but the correlation is not 1.0 as every thing in the financial markets it swings too and therefore it would be possible for a while to have them move opposite each other.
I'm not sure I have EUR/USD up for the long term...
I have EUR/USD up for a test of 1.3491 and maybe even 1.3833 as wave c of E develops, but once wace c of E is done we should see a massive decline.
Could USD/CHF move up at the same time as EUR/USD moves up. Yes of cause, but as I said in my post on USD/CHF we need a break above 0.9245 and more importantly a break above 0.9383 to confirm that wave 2 is indeed over. We could still have a triple zig-zag combination lower, which would take us down closer to 0.8862 and shift my preferred count towards the count I showed you, on my blog, yesterday.
I'm just presenting you with, what I see and not trying to dictating the market action. So wave 2 might or might not be over only time will show, but we know what must happen if it is and we know where we can put a stop to protect our self if wrong.
Hope that clears out some of your confusion.
Kind regards
EWS