After another speedy ride higher to 112.49 a new minor correction has been seen. This correction is likely already over, with its fall to 110.80, but we need a break above 111.93 to confirm that and give us a new push towards 112.49 as the first minor target, followed by a continuation higher towards the 113.47 - 113.68 area, where we will find the next target. Looking at the technical indicator, you can say, that this market is very overbought and yes it is, but some of the biggest moves happens in very overbought territory. So we should not let our self be fooled by overbought indicators, because the risk is that we are taken out and will have a difficult time getting into the market again. Traders trying to pick the top and selling short in the most powerful part of the trend like this, is actually one of the things that keep feeding the trend. Short term support is at 110.91 and important support at 110.14. The later support should not be broken at any time, as that will tell us, that a bigger correction is unfolding.
As expected the trend has picked up speed after the break above 1.5600 and we are already back testing the top at 1.5923. The first try to break 1.5923 was no success and has caused a minor correction, which could already be over at this point and if it is, the next attempt to break above resistance at 1.5923 will likely prove much more successful. A break above 1.5923 will confirm that a move much higher is building and will open for a run towards 1.6311 as the next major target. That said, as long as minor resistance at 1.5875 protect the upside, we must accept the possibility of a deeper correction towards 1.5772 before the next push higher.
Hi dear thanks for the gold chart But the point of concern is Euro . I dont have any doubt in my mind that Euro will go at least 1.3490 for ABC correction . Can it be equal to 1.618 of the wave A of a zigzag. As I pointed out yesterday gbp/yen that move was also 1.618 of the prior wave.
ReplyDeleteWould be glad to know If I am trying to ride the next euro rally what is the confirmation point is it 1.3306 or 1.3260
Regards
I drop and email to the email-address you asked to
Hi Aman,
ReplyDeleteA break above 1.3252 should be confirmation enough to ride the next rally higher in EUR/USD.
If we press the grape a break above 1.3229 will be the first small confirmation. With a stop at 1.3185 that would leave you with almost no risk.
I will come back to you on the e-mail later today.
Kind regards
EWS
i do not like what iam seeing. eurousd.....it seems is making a bear flag!!
ReplyDeleteHi Zink,
ReplyDeleteI'm not seeing any bear-flag at all.
What time-frame are you looking at?
Kind regards
EWS
It runn till resistence zone and now made a bad candle....it fail to make new high!!!
ReplyDeleteAt the time i wrote that comment about bear flag was in timeframe 30!!
Hi again Zink
ReplyDeleteSorry! But I still don't see a bear flag. If any thing a bull flag could be building, but then we will have to make a new low below 1.3189, but I don't think you will see a new low.
I think you have seen the first impulsive legg higher and it should just be a matter of time before a new high is seen, but then again we have to be flexible. But we have not seen an important top yet and will see new highs even if a slightly new low should be seen.
From the time-frame you use I can understand you are a day-trader, which is totally okay, but you should always have the larger trend in mind even when trading the lower time-frames.
Kind regards
EWS
It was invalidate bear flag because it rises!!
ReplyDeleteIt dangerous ...it can building a double top!!
Sorry Zink, but you are looking for ghost's
ReplyDeleteThere will be no double top. If anything maybe a flat correction, that will shortly break below 1.3189, but the uptrend in wave C is in full force.
Just take a look at your daily chart and relax. Nice uptrend, no overbought indicator and more improtantly no divergence.
So my friend - "Be Happy don't worry!"....
Kind regards
EWS
I hope so.....o hope that what iam see is realy a ghost and not a retrace near to 1,31!!
ReplyDeleteHi EWS,
ReplyDeleteDO you think Gold and silver just finished a zig zag abc pattern to the down side from the recent 1800 high. I am showing that A=C on spot gold and silver almost to the dollar today. Also, gold has retraced between .618 and .710 when I use wave E as a base.
Or,
ReplyDeleteDo you think we could be in Wave 3 to the down side on both?
I meant 3 of 3 do the down side on both silver and gold
ReplyDeleteI have place my stop near 1.3126 which is a strong support and risking a bit more than I usually do But no issues flat cant go lower than that .
ReplyDeleteHope so and Tp level is around 1.3390 which is also 38.2% of the whole move on weekly from the 1.4950 to 1.20ish
I am looking a break above 1.3352 which is 61.8% of expansion of the AB leg and then would be looking to enter again and Tp should be at equality would love to ride that confirmations
Regards and Wish me Luck
Hi Todd,
ReplyDeleteNo I don't see the decline from 1,754 as impulsive, but think it's a simple zig-zag correction. That said this correction does not have much more downside to work with if my slightly bullish count is correct (max 1,629.55). A break below 1,629.55 will call for a deeper decline towards 1,528 and an even more complex correction from the 1,920.74 high.
Kind regards
EWS