We saw support at 106.84 protect the downside for a clear and powerful break above 107.67. Not only does that call for a continuation higher towards 108.33 and 108.89 as the next minor targets, but more importantly it removes the risk for an expanded flat correction building. Therefore I have removed that option and mark the decline from 107.67 to 106.85 as wave ii. That means we are now in wave iii of 3 often the most powerful part of an impulsive 5 wave rally. It is very tempting to call a top at this point, but if my count is correct, that will only leave us out of the "wonder to behold" as wave 3 is often called. Trying to go short in this environment, will most often just mean your stop will be hit shortly after, you have entered your short position.
Short term we have a resistance point at 108.00, but a break above here will trigger a lot of stops and likely cause the ongoing rally to move even higher and faster towards our major target at 110.83.
EUR/NZD
We saw the expected minor decline to 1.5840 (the low was at 1.5838), from where the next rally took off. The rally since the 1.5390 low is still very overlapping in its structure, but the best explanation for this behavior is, that a series of waves one's and two's is developing. However, that also means, that once the series of wave three's begins to take over we can expect a very strong and powerful rally higher. Long term we are looking for much higher levels here with 1.6977 being the first major target.
Short term I would like to see a break above 1.5904 and more importantly 1.5918, which confirms the next rally higher towards the next minor target at 1.6009.
No comments:
Post a Comment