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Friday, November 2, 2012

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

I'm sorry that I did not update the post yesterday, but I simply got hung up all night.


 EUR/USD - We are still working ion the D-leg of the triangle. This D-leg will likely reach 1.3110 before turning down in the last leg of the triangle. It is this last E-leg that is interesting, because this is where we get the chance to position our self we a low risk and high reward opportunity. Once the E-leg is in place we should see a thrust out of the triangle to the upside.
 GBP/USD - We saw the expected break above the falling resistance line from the 1.6059 high. This line also was the neckline of an inverted Should/Head/Shoulder bottom, which calls for a rally to at least 1.6380, but I expect we will see this rally continue towards strong resistance near 1.6747.
However, a break above 1.6310 will trigger a big double bottom with a 173.45 target.
 EUR/JPY - Red wave ii became slightly stronger than expected, but we should now be close to a top. I will be looking for a break below 103.32 to confirm, that red wave ii is in place and red wave iii down have begun. The first target for red wave iii is at 101.45.
The risk to this scenario is a break above 104.42 which would call for a new high above 104.75, but the upside pressure should be limited.
EUR/NZD - The failure to break above resistance at 1.5836, was a surprise and the following break below 1.5705 prolonged the ongoing c-wave of the expanded flat correction. The new ideal target for the c-wave is now at 1.5572 just below the current level. Once this c wave bottom is in place it should not be any big struggle to break above 1.5749 and more importantly 1.5836 on the way higher.

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