Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - My call for a move a few pips below 1.2767 (the low was set at 1.2762) was a perfect call. The big question is now whether we will see a new impulsive rally to a new high above 1.3172 or we will see a new X-wave calling for one last corrective leg lower once the X-wave comes to an end. It's to early to tell, but we should expect a new impulsive rally beyond 1.3172 until we are proven wrong.

 GBP/USD - Here we are very close to get the first good indication, that a bottom has been found, with a break above 1.6039. A break above 1.6039 should cause a new push higher towards the Inverted S/H/S neckline at 1.6175. However we need a break above here to activate the formation for a rally higher towards important resistance at 1.6310.

 EUR/JPY - The trend-line support from the 94.10 low protected the downside yesterday and

after a correction towards 103.26 we should see a new attempt to break below this trend-line support. The next attempt should prove successful and cause a powerful decline towards 101.45 and likely even 101.04.

The risk to the bearish scenario is a break above 103.34 and more importantly 103.99, which will likely cause a rally to new highs closer to 104.75.

EUR/NZD - The break below the invalidation point at 1.5453 shifted the larger

picture towards a still ongoing correction from the top of wave 1 at 1.5902. As wave B of this corrective pattern was above the top of the start of wave A we call it an expanded flat correction under the Elliott Wave Principle. In an expanded flat correction wave B goes beyond the starting point wave A and wave C goes beyond the ending point of wave A. Yesterday we saw a small decline below the ending point of wave A, was that enough? No it was not enough, normally was C tend to go as much below the ending point of wave A as wave B broke above the starting point of wave A, which in this case means we should see a continuation down to 1.5300 before wave 2 is finally over.

In the short term I will be looking for a red wave iv correction towards 1.5588 and maybe even 1.5635 before the downside pressure takes over again for the final push towards 1.5300.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - As I said yesterday, with the break below 1.2804 the corrective pattern shifted to a flat correction, where we needed a decline to 1.2775. We have seen a decline to 1.2767 and had I done my math correctly this is exactly the figure I would have calculated. At 1.2767 wave Y is equal to wave W. However It looks like we need just one more new low, before the bottom is finally in place here. We don't have to break below 1.2767 with more than a few pips to end this wave and start a new rally. A break above 1.2842 will be the first indication, that a bottom is in place and the new rally is under way.

 GBP/USD - With a decline to 1.5956 the downside potential has more than been fulfilled here. Here we need a break above 1.6039 to get the first good indication, that the bottom is in place and that a new rally towards 1.6175 is under way.
At no point should we see a break below 1.5913 as that would change the bigger picture.

 EUR/JPY - Is working its way lower and the first target is still at 101.45 and likely even 101.04 before a more decent correction should be seen. The long term target is still 99.35.
Resistance is now at 102.75 and important resistance at 103.34 and break above the later will weaken the downside pressure considerably and could easily cause a new rally higher through 103.99.

EUR/NZD - Is getting awful close to the invalidation point at 1.5453. Under the Elliott wave Principle wave ii is allowed to correct 100% of wave i, but it can't break below the start of wave i with just one pip as that would force a recount of the structure. If we break below 1.5453 (still not my favorite scenario) the hole corrective structure from the wave 1 top at 1.5905 shifts to an expanded flat correction with an ideal target at 1.5300. However, if 1.5453 protects the downside for a break above 1.5569 we have had the first good indication that a new large rally is under way. although it will take a break above 1.5836 to confirm the bottom and the new rally.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

I'm sorry that I did not update the post yesterday, but I simply got hung up all night.

 EUR/USD - We are still working ion the D-leg of the triangle. This D-leg will likely reach 1.3110 before turning down in the last leg of the triangle. It is this last E-leg that is interesting, because this is where we get the chance to position our self we a low risk and high reward opportunity. Once the E-leg is in place we should see a thrust out of the triangle to the upside.

 GBP/USD - We saw the expected break above the falling resistance line from the 1.6059 high. This line also was the neckline of an inverted Should/Head/Shoulder bottom, which calls for a rally to at least 1.6380, but I expect we will see this rally continue towards strong resistance near 1.6747.
However, a break above 1.6310 will trigger a big double bottom with a 173.45 target.

 EUR/JPY - Red wave ii became slightly stronger than expected, but we should now be close to a top. I will be looking for a break below 103.32 to confirm, that red wave ii is in place and red wave iii down have begun. The first target for red wave iii is at 101.45.
The risk to this scenario is a break above 104.42 which would call for a new high above 104.75, but the upside pressure should be limited.

EUR/NZD - The failure to break above resistance at 1.5836, was a surprise and the following break below 1.5705 prolonged the ongoing c-wave of the expanded flat correction. The new ideal target for the c-wave is now at 1.5572 just below the current level. Once this c wave bottom is in place it should not be any big struggle to break above 1.5749 and more importantly 1.5836 on the way higher.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

I will update the text later today:

 EUR/USD -

 GBP/USD -

 EUR/JPY -

EUR/NZD -

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - Okay the triangle scenario seems to be the right one (good guess...). That means we should be looking for a rally higher towards resistance near 1.3110. Remember we don't have to hit this resistance level. We could easily see a high at 1.3065, which will end wave D, but only time will tell where wave D ends. However, once wave D is in place it's then things begin to be interesting, because we then need the final E-wave in the triangle, before we break out of the triangle to the UP-side.

 GBP/USD - Is ready to take on the resistance line back from the 1.6310 high again. Notice the Inverted S/H/S formation that has been building and will be triggered if this resistance line breaks. The target for this Inverted S/H/S is at 1.6380. A break above 1.6310 would on the other hand trigger a possible double bottom with a target at 1.7345.

 EUR/JPY - The big question is whether we have seen red wave ii finish or it's still ongoing? If resistance at 103.39 protects the upside for a break below 102.59, the we know red wave ii is over and a new decline towards 101.45 is under way. However, a break above 103.39 indicates that red wave ii is still ongoing and that we should see a move a little higher towards 103.59 before down.

EUR/NZD - With the break above 1.5789 yesterday is the first good indication, that the big expanding flat correction from the 1.5967 high is over and a new powerful rally is well under way. A break above 1.5820 confirms the bottom and the rally higher. Only a break below 1.5705 will indicate that we still need one more new low near 1.5652 before higher.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - We are just about to break below the support-line from the 1.2044 low. If we break clearly below here I will change my count to show a wave A peak at 1.3172 instead of blue wave 3.
The ongoing correction from 1.3172 could also turn into a B-wave Triangle instead of the flat correction I mentioned yesterday, but no matter, which corrective wave pattern is the right one, we need more time.

 GBP/USD - Is back at the resistance-line from the 1.6310 to confirm, that the correction is over and the next upswing is under way. A clear break above 1.6144 and more importantly 1.6178 will confirm that the correction from 1.6310 is over and a new rally higher towards 1.6618 and 1.6744 is under way.

 EUR/JPY - The c-leg of the expanded flat correction from 103.28 became a little bigger than expected. Wave c became 2.618 time wave a, which is a bit unusual, but not that rare. However, the expanded flat tells us, that we should expect an extended wave iii. I would look for an extension of at least 2 times wave i, which should target 101.75. The target for this correction is at 99.35.

EUR/NZD - We are about ready to see the final move down in red wave v towards the 1.5635 - 1.5652 area, which will end the expanding flat correction from the 1.5967 peak and call for an extended rally in wave 3 to at least 1.6481, but likely higher.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - Is currently correcting in wave iv of 5. This minor wave iv is expected to end between 1.3037 and 1.3060 for the last rally higher towards the target area between 1.3283 - 1.3315, from where will should experience a bigger decline.

 GBP/USD - Wasn't able to break above the resistance line at 1.6167, which needs to be broken to confirm that the correction from 1.6310 is indeed over. However it will take a break below 1.6021 to confirm, that a more complex correction from 1.6310 is ongoing. As long as support at 1.6021 holds firm I will be looking for a break above 1.6167 as the most likely scenario. A break above 1.6167 will open up for a rally towards 1.6310 on the way towards 1.6747.

EUR/JPY - As I said yesterday, this cross is the leader and here we have already seen a break above the September 17 high at 103.85. That means we can now count five waves from the 94.10 low and thereby the basic impulsive structure is fulfilled, however I do think that this is only a wave iv of 5, which ideally will end between 102.96 and 103.25 for the last rally higher towards 104.71, from where the biggest correction since the this impulsive rally started at 94.10 will be seen.

EUR/NZD - Has most likely already ended its blue wave ii and should be ready to take of in the powerful blue wave iii. A break above 1.5987 will confirm that the next rally is well under way. At no point should we see a break below 1.5873 and more importantly a break below 1.5788 as that would leave us with a three wave correction of the 1.5700 low and indicate that a more complex correction is ongoing.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - The triangle ended sooner than I expected, but we knew it was just a question of time before wave five would take of towards the upside. The first target for this wave v is at 1.3315, which a break above 1.3071 will confirm.

GBP/USD - On September 14 I had a post under the name " Cable - Is a big rally just ahead" You can see the post here:  http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/09/cable-is-big-rally-just-ahead.html.

This option is still very much alive. However it hasn't yet been confirmed. For confirmation we need a break above 1.6300 and more importantly a break above 1.6747, but that would open up the upside for a huge rally higher towards at least 1.8822 and possibly even towards 2.0170.

Looking at the 4 hourly chart we could have seen the bottom of wave 2 at 1.5975 and is headed higher for a test of important resistance at 1.6194 and a break above here confirms that wave 2 is over and wave 3 is well under way.

 EUR/JPY - Has long been the mirror picture of EUR/JPY and here too we have seen a break out of the wave 4 triangle and is now headed higher towards 104.71 as the first target for wave 5.
If you enlarge the chart above (double click at it) you can see that we already have broken above resistance at 102.80 confirming that the triangle is indeed finished and wave 5 is well under way higher.

EUR/NZD - Here too we have powered ahead higher and has broken above the 1.5967 top, which confirms the underlying uptrend and calls for a move towards 1.6127 and 1.6215, but longer term we should move much higher and remember, that it's common for wave 3 to break above the base channels resistance line, so we have much more upside to cover.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - Having tested the base channel former resistance-line, which is now acting as support, we should see a rally back to the top of blue wave iii at 1.3172. The decline from 1.3172 to 1.2919 could be all of blue wave iv, but I favor, that this decline only was the first part of a more complex correction.
Short term I will look for a break above 1.3047 and more importantly 1.3085 to confirm the rally back towards the top at 1.3172.

 GBP/USD - Is hoovering just below resistance at 1.6305 and a break above here will add more confidence to the bullish count I presented on September 14 (see it here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/09/cable-is-big-rally-just-ahead.html)
We could be in some kind of giant triangle calling for a rally wave D.
All that said we need a break above 1.6747 to invalidate the bearish triangle count, that previously has been my working count, but has lost more and more validity as we have worked our way higher.

 EUR/JPY- Has found support and the base channel mid-line and we should now see a rally back towards the top of black wave 3 at 103.85. Even though the decline from 103.85 is clearly in three waves I only regard this decline as the first leg of a more complex correction. It could be a triangle of some kind of flat correction, but no matter which outcome turns out to be the correct one. I would be focused towards the upside and look for a move back towards the top of black wave 3 at 103.85.
If the triangle scenario is the correct one we will not make it all the way back to 103.85, but we should see a move higher towards the 102.75 - 103.00 area.

EUR/NZD - We broke slightly below 1.5578 during the day, which means that black wave 2 most likely ended at 1.5569 (today's low) and we should now for a rally above 1.5667 as the first indication, that a bottom is in place, while a break above 1.5810 will confirm the bottom for a new rally above 1.5902 towards the next target at 1.6498 and most likely even higher.
However if we unexpectedly breaks below 1.5569 we will likely see a deeper correction towards 1.5438 and maybe even 1.5328, but I don't prefer this scenario.