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EUR/USD - With a new low at 1.2735 the flat correction is still ongoing. I'm still looking for this flat correction to end shortly for a break above 1.2876, that would confirm the next rally higher towards at least 1.3100 and likely above 131.72 for a continuation higher towards 1.3490.
That said there is a possibility, that wave E of the B-wave Triangle ended with the test of 1.3172, which marked the 38.2% Fibonacci target of wave D. If this is the case we should see renewed downside pressure gain momentum.
EUR/JPY - We have now broken below the trend-line support starting from 94.10, this indicates that the downside pressure will be building, but as we are in a corrective phase the decline to our ideal target at 99.35 will not be straight forward. As it can be seen on the chart above, we have now build a new base channel and to increase the downside pressure we need to break below it. If we do break below the new base channel support line we should see a swift decline toward 101.04. However, there is a clear risk,that the base channel support line protects the downside and causes a new mini rally towards 102.30 and maybe even 102.60 before the next downside pressure is seen
EUR/NZD - With the break below important support at 1.5453 we had to change the
overall structure of the correction since the 1.5905 high (wave 1). By break
below 1.5453 we could not have begun a new impulsive rally to the upside, but
we still had to be in a corrective phase. The corrective pattern we are looking
at is an expanded flat correction, as wave B broke above the starting point of
wave A and wave C has now broken below the ending point of wave A. Normally
there will be a Fibonacci relationship between wave A and Wave C. We do expect
that wave C will be 1.618 time the length of wave A, which should take us down
to 1.5325, where we also will have corrected 61.8% of wave 1.We are currently at the very last part of
red wave iv and should soon see renewed downside pressure for a break below
1.5549 and more importantly 1.5469, that confirms that red wave v is under way
down to 1.5325.
Dow Jones Industrial Index - Yesterday big decline confirmed that a top is in place at 13,653.00
We should see continued downside pressure for a serious test of the red support line at 12,700 and if this support line break we will see the downside pressure gain more momentum.
Crude Oil - Here I'm looking for a serious test of the support line at 83.70 and a break below here will confirm my bearish count and a decline towards 78.68.
The risk is that 83.70 protects the downside for a break above 89.22 that will call for a new rally higher towards 100.
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