Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY - With the break above the top at 107.13 we have two possible scenarios. The more bearish one is, that an expanded flat correction is building. The bullish scenario is, that wave iii already is well under way. If we are looking at an expanded flat correction we should see a rally higher towards the 107.75 - 107.77 area, from where a powerful decline should set in for a move down to 104.66. However, if wave iii has indeed begun, then resistance at 107.77 should be no problem to break for a continuation higher towards 108.66 and even higher longer term. As the risk is being in wave iii I will rather go with the bullish scenario, than missing the most powerful rally in a impulsive sequence. 

EUR/NZD - We have just seen the minor impulsive rally from 1.5679, which is the first clue, that wave three is under way. We already know, that wave three will be an extended wave as we have seen a series of waves one's and two's. Therefore we should look for a very powerful rally once we break above important resistance at 1.5836. However, before we will see the break above 1.5836 we should see a minor correction towards 1.5766 and maybe even down to the 1.5732 - 1.5749 area before wave three really takes over. A clear break above 1.5836 will call for a continuation higher towards 1.6059 as the next major resistance, but longer term we are expecting much higher levels:

Long term Elliott Wave count for USD/JPY

USD/JPY - Looking at the long term picture for USD/JPY the major downtrend is still intact, but could a cyclical bottom be in place? A break above 84.18 and more importantly a break above the reflexion point at 85.52 will be the first good indication, that a major bottom indeed could be in place. A break above the reflexion point at 85.52 will call for a rally towards the apex of the 4-wave Triangle at 114.20.
Short term we have a strong support at 80.55, which ideally will protect the downside for the rally above 84.18 and more importantly 85.52 for a strong rally higher.

Long term Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD and Facebook

 EUR/USD - Time to take a look at the long term preferred count. We are currently building the e-leg of a major B-wave Triangle. I'm looking for this wave e to make it to at least 1.3491 (50% Fibo retracement of wave d) and maybe even to the 61.8% Fibo retracement target at 1.3832 before the B-wave Triangle is finally over and wave C down takes over.

 EUR/JPY - If we close above 104.58 this month, we have the first long term clue, that we have started the next major impulsive rally higher. The first target for this new impulsive rally will be at the b-wave high at 138.72, but longer term we houls see a break above 169.43 towards equality at 174.50. You will not want to mis out on this rally.

 EUR/NZD - Here to we are just about to get the first major signal, that a new long term impulsive rally is under way. The first major target for this rally is at 1.6966. However, longer term we should make it even higher towards 1.9571 if not all the way to the falling channel resistance line near 2.5000.

Facebook - Has now made a new high confirming the impulsive rally I have expected since the 17.55 low. Yes the wave ii decline was very deep, but it did not break below important support at 18.80, which was the invalidation point for my preferred count. I'm still looking for a continuation higher towards 28.70 and long term 33.45, what happens here will determine whether the correction from 45.00 will be a complex corretion or whether the next impulsive rally above 45 is under way.

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD and Facebook

I'm back from a very exciting vacation. I didn't have the chance to look at any rates or charts duing the vacation, but I can see that things has been anything but dull.

 EUR/USD - The B-wave of the correction from the 1.2042 low ended with the test of 1.2660 and we should now see wave C higher towards 1.3490 and more likely the area between 1.3785 - 1.3832. Once we have this C-wave in place that will end the E-wave of the B-wave Triangle of one larger degree, but for now we will should concentrate on the development of the C-wave rally higher.

 EUR/JPY - Wave 2 ended at 100.32 and the powerful wave 3 higher towards at least 110.76 is well under way. As can be seen wave 3 has already broken above the Base channel resistance-line, which could be the first sign, that wave 3 will extend towards 117.24.
Short term we could see a minor correction down to 105.72, but we should remember, that corrections in wave 3 tend to be sub normal.

 EUR/NZD - Here it looks as wave 2 ended with a quick spike below the 50% Fib. retracement target at 1.5440 and we should soon see an acceleration higher in wave 3 higher towards at least 1.6336 and more likely even higher at 1.6916.
I prefer the series of waves one's and two's slightly above the rally being a Leading Diagonal, but this count can't be exclude at this point.

Facebook - With a low at 18.88 just 0.08 points from my invalidation point at 18.80 of my preferred count, you don't get anything more exciting than this, but as support at 18.80 did stay intact we should now see the next rally higher towards 28.70 in wave iii. Longer term I'm still looking for a rally towards the wave B high at 33.45.

Vacation Time

First a week to Dubai

then off to Kenya for a week

Take care of your self and good luck with your trading. See you all on Sunday November 25 again.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; Apple and Facebook

 EUR/USD - Has we finally seen the end of the flat correction from 1.3172? I do think the low is in place, but we need a break above 1.2876 to confirm the bottom and a new rally to at least 1.3100 and likely even above 1.3172 for a move towards 1.3500 longer term.

 EUR/JPY - We saw a break below the base channel support line for a decline to 101.03 (just 1 pip below my target at 101.04). We should now see resistance in the 102.19 - 102.23 area for the next pressure towards the downside. The ideal target for this correction is at 99.35.

 EUR/NZD - The red wave iv correction has extended, but the should be no more room towards the upside. I will be looking for a break below support at 1.5575, which will confirm that red wave iv is over and renewed downside pressure will be seen for a decline towards 1.5363 and ideally towards 1.5300. However a break above 1.5693 will cause a overlap between red wave i and red wave iv, which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle and indicate, that we have already seen an important low.

Apple - Is close to the first major support in the area between 516-522, which will likely cause a sizeable correction towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target at 639. However longer term I expect a deeper decline towards at least 465. 

Facebook - Is close to strong support and a new rally in wave iii should commerce any time now. This wave iii will be an extended wave which should take us much higher towards 26.75.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD; DJI and Crude Oil

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 EUR/USD - With a new low at 1.2735 the flat correction is still ongoing. I'm still looking for this flat correction to end shortly for a break above 1.2876, that would confirm the next rally higher towards at least 1.3100 and likely above 131.72 for a continuation higher towards 1.3490.
That said there is a possibility, that wave E of the B-wave Triangle ended with the test of 1.3172, which marked the 38.2% Fibonacci target of wave D. If this is the case we should see renewed downside pressure gain momentum.

EUR/JPY - We have now broken below the trend-line support starting from 94.10, this indicates that the downside pressure will be building, but as we are in a corrective phase the decline to our ideal target at 99.35 will not be straight forward. As it can be seen on the chart above, we have now build a new base channel and to increase the downside pressure we need to break below it. If we do break below the new base channel support line we should see a swift decline toward 101.04. However, there is a clear risk,that the base channel support line protects the downside and causes a new mini rally towards 102.30 and maybe even 102.60 before the next downside pressure is seen

EUR/NZD - With the break below important support at 1.5453 we had to change the overall structure of the correction since the 1.5905 high (wave 1). By break below 1.5453 we could not have begun a new impulsive rally to the upside, but we still had to be in a corrective phase. The corrective pattern we are looking at is an expanded flat correction, as wave B broke above the starting point of wave A and wave C has now broken below the ending point of wave A. Normally there will be a Fibonacci relationship between wave A and Wave C. We do expect that wave C will be 1.618 time the length of wave A, which should take us down to 1.5325, where we also will have corrected 61.8% of wave 1.We are currently at the very last part of red wave iv and should soon see renewed downside pressure for a break below 1.5549 and more importantly 1.5469, that confirms that red wave v is under way down to 1.5325.

Dow Jones Industrial Index - Yesterday big decline confirmed that a top is in place at 13,653.00
We should see continued downside pressure for a serious test of the red support line at 12,700 and if this support line break we will see the downside pressure gain more momentum.

Crude Oil - Here I'm looking for a serious test of the support line at 83.70 and a break below here will confirm my bearish count and a decline towards 78.68.
The risk is that 83.70 protects the downside for a break above 89.22 that will call for a new rally higher towards 100.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - My call for a move a few pips below 1.2767 (the low was set at 1.2762) was a perfect call. The big question is now whether we will see a new impulsive rally to a new high above 1.3172 or we will see a new X-wave calling for one last corrective leg lower once the X-wave comes to an end. It's to early to tell, but we should expect a new impulsive rally beyond 1.3172 until we are proven wrong.

 GBP/USD - Here we are very close to get the first good indication, that a bottom has been found, with a break above 1.6039. A break above 1.6039 should cause a new push higher towards the Inverted S/H/S neckline at 1.6175. However we need a break above here to activate the formation for a rally higher towards important resistance at 1.6310.

 EUR/JPY - The trend-line support from the 94.10 low protected the downside yesterday and

after a correction towards 103.26 we should see a new attempt to break below this trend-line support. The next attempt should prove successful and cause a powerful decline towards 101.45 and likely even 101.04.

The risk to the bearish scenario is a break above 103.34 and more importantly 103.99, which will likely cause a rally to new highs closer to 104.75.

EUR/NZD - The break below the invalidation point at 1.5453 shifted the larger

picture towards a still ongoing correction from the top of wave 1 at 1.5902. As wave B of this corrective pattern was above the top of the start of wave A we call it an expanded flat correction under the Elliott Wave Principle. In an expanded flat correction wave B goes beyond the starting point wave A and wave C goes beyond the ending point of wave A. Yesterday we saw a small decline below the ending point of wave A, was that enough? No it was not enough, normally was C tend to go as much below the ending point of wave A as wave B broke above the starting point of wave A, which in this case means we should see a continuation down to 1.5300 before wave 2 is finally over.

In the short term I will be looking for a red wave iv correction towards 1.5588 and maybe even 1.5635 before the downside pressure takes over again for the final push towards 1.5300.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/USD - As I said yesterday, with the break below 1.2804 the corrective pattern shifted to a flat correction, where we needed a decline to 1.2775. We have seen a decline to 1.2767 and had I done my math correctly this is exactly the figure I would have calculated. At 1.2767 wave Y is equal to wave W. However It looks like we need just one more new low, before the bottom is finally in place here. We don't have to break below 1.2767 with more than a few pips to end this wave and start a new rally. A break above 1.2842 will be the first indication, that a bottom is in place and the new rally is under way.

 GBP/USD - With a decline to 1.5956 the downside potential has more than been fulfilled here. Here we need a break above 1.6039 to get the first good indication, that the bottom is in place and that a new rally towards 1.6175 is under way.
At no point should we see a break below 1.5913 as that would change the bigger picture.

 EUR/JPY - Is working its way lower and the first target is still at 101.45 and likely even 101.04 before a more decent correction should be seen. The long term target is still 99.35.
Resistance is now at 102.75 and important resistance at 103.34 and break above the later will weaken the downside pressure considerably and could easily cause a new rally higher through 103.99.

EUR/NZD - Is getting awful close to the invalidation point at 1.5453. Under the Elliott wave Principle wave ii is allowed to correct 100% of wave i, but it can't break below the start of wave i with just one pip as that would force a recount of the structure. If we break below 1.5453 (still not my favorite scenario) the hole corrective structure from the wave 1 top at 1.5905 shifts to an expanded flat correction with an ideal target at 1.5300. However, if 1.5453 protects the downside for a break above 1.5569 we have had the first good indication that a new large rally is under way. although it will take a break above 1.5836 to confirm the bottom and the new rally.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/NZD and Crude Oil

 EUR/USD - What looks a prefect triangle developing one day looks different the next day. That's how corrections works. That said we could still be building a triangle and if we are there is no more room to the downside. If we break below the starting point of wave B at 1.2804 the preferred corrective pattern becomes a flat correction, which will likely takes us down to 1.2775 to complete the flat correction. However, as long as support at 1.2804 stays intact I will keep the triangle scenario as my preferred count.

GBP/USD - What looked like a prefect break above the Inverted S/H/S neckline was invalidated just as quick. However, it's very likely that the right shoulder is under development and a new rally higher towards 1.6175 soon should be seen. Short term we could see a move a little lower towards 1.5982, before the next test of the neckline will be seen.

 EUR/JPY - We have most likely seen red wave ii end at 103.99 and red wave iii should gather more momentum soon and ensure a powerful decline to at least 101.45 and likely even lower towards 101.00 soon.
It will still take a break above 104.42 to invalidate my preferred count and call for a new high closer to 104.75.

 EUR/NZD - I was somewhat surprised to see the powerful breakdown on Friday, but it has not changed my preferred count. Only a break below 1.5453 will do that. As long as support at 1.5453 protects the downside I do think we very soon should see a powerful rally begin as wave C of the expanded flat correction comes to an end. However, if we break below 1.5453 that would change the bigger picture and tell us, that the big wave 2 correction from 1.5905 (the top of wave 1) is still unfolding and that we ultimately should see a low near 1.5300.

Crude Oil - Here I'm still looking for a break below important support at 83.45 for a continuation down to 78.69 and long term a much deeper decline. However there is a risk, that support at 83.45 protects the downside for a new rally above 93.67, that would call for a move towards the 100 - 102 area before down again. My preferred count is a continuation down through support at 83.45, but please be aware of the risk. A break above resistance at 87.80 will be a first warning.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

I'm sorry that I did not update the post yesterday, but I simply got hung up all night.

 EUR/USD - We are still working ion the D-leg of the triangle. This D-leg will likely reach 1.3110 before turning down in the last leg of the triangle. It is this last E-leg that is interesting, because this is where we get the chance to position our self we a low risk and high reward opportunity. Once the E-leg is in place we should see a thrust out of the triangle to the upside.

 GBP/USD - We saw the expected break above the falling resistance line from the 1.6059 high. This line also was the neckline of an inverted Should/Head/Shoulder bottom, which calls for a rally to at least 1.6380, but I expect we will see this rally continue towards strong resistance near 1.6747.
However, a break above 1.6310 will trigger a big double bottom with a 173.45 target.

 EUR/JPY - Red wave ii became slightly stronger than expected, but we should now be close to a top. I will be looking for a break below 103.32 to confirm, that red wave ii is in place and red wave iii down have begun. The first target for red wave iii is at 101.45.
The risk to this scenario is a break above 104.42 which would call for a new high above 104.75, but the upside pressure should be limited.

EUR/NZD - The failure to break above resistance at 1.5836, was a surprise and the following break below 1.5705 prolonged the ongoing c-wave of the expanded flat correction. The new ideal target for the c-wave is now at 1.5572 just below the current level. Once this c wave bottom is in place it should not be any big struggle to break above 1.5749 and more importantly 1.5836 on the way higher.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

I will update the text later today:

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