EUR/USD - Is a running triangle building?

EUR/USD - Is a running triangle currently developing? It could well be, but if its the case we should resistance at 1.2637 ( top of wave b) hold for a decline towards the 1.2550 - 1.2565 area to end wave e and red wave iv of C and then one final rally higher towards 1.2650 and likely even to 1.2705 before red wave 4 finally find its top.
I'm really bad at guessing what fundamental outcome could cause the expected technical picture to come true. But just for fun I will give it a try today. The ECB holds its ordinary meeting today and everybody expect them to announce some kind of bond-buying scheme, that could be the trigger for this expected technical picture to come true. However I really don't care as long as I know where I can expect a high in this cross and where I'm wrong, which will be a break below 1.2501 and more importantly 1.2465, that would call for a top of red wave 4 and indicate that red wave 5 to down below 1.2040 have begun.