EUR/USD - Did we end red wave 4 with a fifth failure or do we still need one last rally higher towards 1.2650 before red wave 4 is finally done?
As long as important support at 1.2487 protects the downside I will still be expecting one last rally higher towards 1.2650, but a break below 1.2487 without any new high will call for a fifth failure at 1.2628 and that red wave 5 to down below 1.2040 has begun.
If we have seen a fifth failure at 1.2628 it indicates underlying weakness and we should expect a powerful decline in red wave 5.
GBP/USD - Okay we broke slightly above 1.5899, but with a high at 1.5909 the top at 1.5912 was secured and my count intact. Now we need a break below 1.5829 as first good indication that red wave iii is indeed under way, while a break below 1.5771 will confirm that red wave iii did begin at 1.5909. If you did take advantage of the low risk selling opportunity yesterday I will recommend keeping the stop at 1.5950 until a break below 1.5771 has been seen and then moving stop down to 1.5910.
Long term I'm looking for a break below 1.3514, so this should be a very long term trade with lots of potential.
USD/CAD - Here is another possible low risk and long term trade. With the failure to break above resistance at 0.9946 another decline to 0.9842 has been seen, but I do think that we saw an important low at 0.9841 and that this support will hold for the break above 0.9946 confirming renewed upside pressure and a rally to at least 1.0445 longer term.
You can buy USD here with a 0.9835 low risk stop or more conservatively wait for a break above 0.9946 with a 0.9840 stop.
EUR/JPY - Here too we failed to rally to a new high above 99.12, which as for EUR/USD could mean that we have seen a fifth failure. However to confirm that we need a direct break below 97.98. As long as support at 97.98 holds firm we should expect one last rally towards the 99.12 - 99.36 area before black wave 3 is finally over. If we do see a direct break below 97.98 and thereby confirms the fifth failure we shouldn't see a correction deeper than 97.33 actually we should not expect a move below strong support at 97.80 before the next rally higher towards the 101.40 - 101.60 target-zone.
EUR/NZD - As I said yesterday, we are in an extended third wave and correction is expected to be very shallow. However we should now have seen green wave iii top at 1.5881 and should expect a decline into the wave iv zone of one lessor degree (maroon wave iv between 1.5670 - 1.5706) before the next rally higher in green wave v towards at least 1.5940 and likely even 1.6050.
Gold - With an almost perfect test of the 1,699.42 target (the high has been 1.698.95) I'm now looking for a break below 1,685.58 as the first confirmation that the correction from 1,526.80 is over and that a new decline towards strong support near 1,521.00 has begun. However we need a break below 1,645.59 to confirm the top.
Crude Oil - Did break back into the wedge shape like pattern, but wasn't able to make a new high, which to me indicates underlying weakness and I will be looking for a break below 93.95 to confirm that weakness for the next major move to below 77.29.
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