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Monday, September 3, 2012

Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD; EUR/JPY; EUR/AUD; EUR/NZD and Gold

 EUR/USD - I'm looking for one more high closer to the 1.2650 target, but we should be pretty close to the end of this red wave 4 correction and should begin to focus our mindset on the coming red wave 5, which should take us below 1.2040.
 USD/JPY - Important support at 78.15 is still holding firm and therefore I will keep my bullish count even though I'm very very much in doubt if this count is the correct one. A break above 78.61 and more importantly 78.84 will ease the downside pressure for a push higher towards 79.66.
 GBP/USD - Manage to get back into the ending diagonal pattern and we should accept the possibility of one last higher above 1.5912 as long as support at 1.5728 has not been broken. However don't expect much more than a move higher towards 1.5927 if the high at 1.5912 is broken. If however we don't see a break above 1.5912 but a direct break below 1.5728 the count shown above is the correct count and then we are in the powerful red wave iii down towards at least 1.5642
 EUR/JPY - Here I'm still looking for one last rally higher. Ideally we should see a rally to 99.59, but I'm very much in doubt if we will make it higher than 99.36 before red wave 5 and black wave 3 find its top and setting the stage for a correction in black wave 4 back towards the 97.80 - 97.90 area.
 EUR/AUD - This is not a cross that would normally analyse, but as I was looking at it I found some very interesting relationships between the waves. Since the bottom at 1.1604 we have seen a nice rally and either have ended red wave 3 or is just about to end it at 1.2280. If you look at the chart you will see that the price has moved just above two possible targets for red wave 3, but if blue wave 5 is equal to blue wave 3, then we should see one last move higher towards 1.2280 before red wave 3 in done and red wave 4 sets in. As red wave 3 has extended we should expect a very shallow red wave 4 and likely it could be just a 23.6% correction of red wave 3 at 1.2115.
 EUR/NZD - Here too I'm looking for a correction, but as is the case for EUR/AUD I don't expect much of it and a move to 1.5588 could be enough before maroon wave v takes over towards 1.5776.
Gold - We should ideally see one more push higher towards the 1,699.42 target before the correction from 1,526.40 is finally done and a new decline towards strong support at 1,521 is seen.

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