Elliott wave and technical analysis of the USD-Index; EUR/USD; USD/CAD; EUR/TRY; VIX; DJI; S&P 500; CRB; Gold; Copper and Crude oil

The FOMC announced yesterday, that interest rates might stay at exceptionnel low levels to 2014. They didn't say, that they will keep them low or for that sake not raise them if inflation begins to pick up. But the financial markets interpreted the statement as they will hold them at 0 - 0.25% until 2014 and that pushed the the risk-scenario to the forefront.

As long as the financial markets sees it this way the risk is, that risky assets will rally higher, but we are not yet quite out of the woods, so regard the price-action today and tomorrow carefully.

USD Index - is now testing the neckline support, The MACD-indicator is at the zero line, this is make it or break it time. If we break below here we will be looking at a deeper decline towards 76.40, but remember we need a break.

The other side of the equation is a break above the steep minor resistance line at 80.00 and more importantly a break above 80.35, that would call for a new rally towards 81.78 again as possibly higher.EUR/USD - Here we are at resistance at 131.35, which needs to hold to avoid a continuation higher towards the next resistance at 133.35.

If however 131.35 holds for a break below 130.30 and more importantly 129.30 we should see a new decline towards strong support in the 125.50 - 126.45 area. USD/CAD - My "X" wave triangle got creamed yesterday and we are most likely looking at some kind of double zig-zag, that should at least reach 99.56, but the risk is a continuation towards 98.88 and 97.20 if the risk-scenario plays out.EUR/TRY - Is tracing out a nice little bear-flag and when it breaks out to the downside we will see the next decline towards the double top target near 221.25.VIX Index - Spiked outside the lower Bollinger Band again, but closed inside the Bollinger Bands again. Take care as we are setting up a sudden trend-reversal. Wedge resistance at 21.50 is key for the next rally higher.

S&P 500 - is right at its 2007 and 2011 highs resistance-line. We apexed yesterday calling for a potential top here at 1,326. Maybe the financial markets realises that the misinterpreted the FED yesterday?

Dow Jones Industrial - We are back at resistance at 12,751. As long as this resistance stays intact I'm still looking for a break below support at 12,500 to confirm the top and the next decline lower.

However risk is clearly a break above 12,751, which will open for a rally higher towards 12,807.

CRB Index - Closed right at its resistance at 316.30. As I said yesterday a clear break above here will open for a continuation higher towards the 339 area (risk-scenario). While a break below 309 and more importantly 306.80 is needed to invalidate further upside progress and call for a decline back towards support near 293.65.

Gold - Shoot up through resistance, which has opened for a continuation towards the next resistance at 1,761 and maybe 1,802.

We also move back into the raising channel back from late 2008, which is bullish, but remember this is a monthly chart (see below), so the final call is still out in the open.

Gold Monthly

Copper - Here too we keep climbing, which points towards a more risk-on behavior, but copper is heavily overbought, so we have to tread carefully up here.

Crude oil - Is holde below the broken support line on acting as resistance, but we need a break below 97.40 to take of the upside pressure and a call for a deeper decline towards 92.54 and likely lower.

A break back above 101 will call for a new test of resistance near 103.40 and probably higher near 106.40.

Sorry for being a bit twisted today, but we are right at an important cross-road, which can lead both ways...