



Short term we are back testing the steep former resistance-line, which has now turned into support in the 101.20 - 101.30 area. Buying in this area represents a low-risk buying opportunity as we not allowed to break below support at 100.49, so stops can be placed just below 100.49 say 100.40, which will leave you with a risk of just above 1%. You don't get it much better than that.

A break above 105 would come as a big surprise to me, but only above 107.52 invalidates the downside pressure for a new rally towards the 110.80 high.
Dow Jones Industrial - Reached just above 12,500 yesterday and backed off. Is a top in place? It's to early to say. We need a break below support at 12,284 to confirm the top. However the rally to 12,514 was followed by multiple divergences at the MACD-indicator telling us, that this is a weak rally and that we should be careful in these lofty areas.
VIX-Index - Made a slightly lower low at 20.05, thereby fulfilling all demands to end the ending diagonal. However we need a break above 21.78 and more importantly 23.73 to confirm that an important bottom is in place.



The market has in my view become way too complacent lately and this is a dangerous cocktail and risk is much higher to the downside and the possibility of further gains.
Shanghai Composite - Here to we have meet resistance near 2,300. See how all markets are lining up at resistance or supports. I do think we are close to a very volatile period.
CRB-Index - Here too we are at strong resistance, which could and most likely will turn focus to the downside again. Longer term I'm still looking for a more firm test of strong support in the 292 - 293 area, but if this area breaks we are looking at 247 as the next target.
Gold - Here too we are at resistance, ready to be rejected and facing a new decline towards support at 1,520 and likely lower towards 1,489 and 1,281 longer term.
Silver - Here too we are back test the former support-line, which has now become resistance. I expect resistance in this area will hold for the next challenge of strong support in the 26 area, but ultimately I expect this support to be broken for a move lower towards the next strong support in the 21 area.





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