The micro-count shows, that we currently is in a sub-wave (iv) correction (flat correction). The minor correction will most likely take us down just below 147.70 (bottom of minor wave a), before the next leg high is seen.
As I said yesterday, the break above 146.95 killed the preferred diagonal count and my EUR-bullish alternate count became the preferred count. The above chart shows the monthly EUR/USD chart, which calls for a major rally in wave 3 or C (I prefer the Major A-B-C count in contrast to the wave 1-2-3 count, but there is no hurry making any decision in the regard at this point).
Zooming in on the long term count to the daily picture. The last part of the rally has lead to a break above resistance at the MACD indicator eliminating the last divergence, which have paved the way for the move towards the next important resistance at 151.44.
It has been 14 days since I have last talked about the S&P 500. With the new high since the March 2009 rally we still have a firm uptrend, that said we are facing resistance just above. At 1,355 wave C will be 61.8% of wave A. Will it be a top? Maybe all the markers for a possible top is in place, but we need a break below 1,328 and more importantly 1,295 to have indications of a top.
I'm still working on the bigger picture, but lets start looking at the rally from 134.29. I does look like a finished rally. It's not very impressive and lacks impulsivness, none the less we can count a five wave rally from 134.29 to 147.13 (see the chart above). The MACD indicator show a serious negative divergence all pointing to a possible top being in place for a correction.
Zooming in on the last part of the rally from 141.55 to 147.13 again we can count a nice impulsive five wave rally. The internal relationships between the waves is nice too. Wave iii is 1.618 times longer than wave i and wave v and i is close to being equal.
Resistance at 146.95 is broken, which means the possible diagonal-count is off.
With a slight new high in Europe trading hours the final rally hasn't found it's final peak just yet, but we are very very close to the top, if not already in.
Looking at USD-index we can see that the final decline from 81.44 has become a ending diagonal. We have seen a throwover, which is normally an ending sign of the formation. I wil not excluse one more new low in the 73.36 - 73.58 area, but again we should be very very close to the final bottom.
Are we finally there? Is the top finally in place?
Silver is on it's way to the moon or at least so i seems. Yes the US economy is in bad shape. The Euro-zone doesn't look to good either, but can the rocket keep its momentum going? No way, there is a limit! The only question is where...
I'm amazed, that we managed to break above 144.67 to challenge the old 145.55 - 145.70 target-area. We have seen a high at 145.46, but I would expect a full challenge of the this area soon. Remember that under no circumstance can a break above 146.95 be accepted, as that make wave D in the falling diagonal longer than the B-wave, which is not allowed. A break above 146.95 would give the impression of a finished A-B-C correction from 160.38 down to 118.75 and that we should at least see a new test of 151.44, but we will propably head much higher.
Hmmmm! Not just what I had expected, but as I said micro count can be tough to read.
I'm still messing around with the micro counts for this wave iv correction. We saw a nice throw-over, but the failure to break below 142.62 has kept the correction alive. The final part of the correction has become a ending diagonal, which should be over and the next move down to begin soon. The current set-up could result in a shape and deep decline when we break below 143.26.
The micro count (a bit difficulte to see on the above chart) shows that we are in a wave (iv) in purpel wave iii down. I expects wave i black down to end just below 140.05.
On March 9 - 2011 I had a post regarding Copper vs. S&P 500 - See the linke below:
Wave D in the diagonal since mid-July 2008 ended with a fifth failure at 145.15 and we should now see wave E to the downside. Wave E will be shorter than wave C, which means wave E can't go below 112.54, but I would expect a bottom around the 116 area. 
The possible triangle I described yesterday got wiped out in early Far East trading and the price-action finally looks impulsive. Taking a closer look at the micor waves from what I have labeled wave ii (in purple) is a serie og one's and two's and we are now in wave three down. We should see the bottom of wave i down close to the 140.05 level. 
We are close to ending the wave B-triangle that has been forming since November 2008. Wave e of the triangle should not break above the top of wave d at 3,186. We might see the triangle resistance-line slightly penetrated before wave e finally is finished. A break below 2,850 will confirm that wave is over and wave C down is under way. 
On Thursday a had a post regarding a possible fifth-failure, but the price-actions since then doesn't support the fifth-wave failure. The price-action is clearly more corrective, which supports a possible triangle building as red wave iv. If this is the case we should still one more thrust higher towards the 145.55-145.70 before topping out finally. Only a break below 142.68 will indicate that a top is already in place, as that would leave us with an overlap between red wave i and red wave iv, which is not allowed. 
We might just have seen a fifth failure as red wave v at 145.15. The decline from 145.15 to 143.62 is clearly impulsive, which could indicate that we have seen a change in the trend. Before we can verify the possible fifth failure we need a break below 143.62 and now new high above 145.15, as a new high above 145.15 reopen the case for a move towards the 145.55 - 145.70 area. First good indication, that red wave v was an fifth failure will come if we break below 144.31 and confirmed by a break below 143.62. We have to be patience as the top finalizes, but we sould be pretty close now.
Nothings easy about this last part of the rally. The shape of red wave iv became an expanded flat and not a triangle, but as long as 144.10 isn't broken to the downside we should see one last rally higher towards the ideal 145.55 - 145.70 target-area. A break below 144.10 would have the possible red wave iv overlap red wave i, which is not allowed and suggest that we have already seen a top at 145.20. Pinpointing the top has been a drag, but we should be there soon.
We just might have seen a fifth-wave failure in the S&P 500. Comparing with the Dow Jones Industrial, which reached a new higher high above the February 18 top the S&P 500 haven't made a new high. The last part of the rally from 1,248.83 has been quite steep, but technical weak. Maybe Apple and Goldman Sachs was telling us something: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/04/apple-telling-us-something.html http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/04/goldman-sachs-also-telling-us-something.html 
Zooming in on the hourly and the 5 minute chart below, we clearly can see the possible fifth-failure ending the rally from July 1 - 2010. The decline from 1,339.46 is a five wave decline, which is the first sign, that the previous trend might have turned. If we have seen the final top, then we should see a correction higher towards 1,320 and possible 1,329, before the next leg lower.
The A-B-C correction from mid-February 2009 at 33.55 has been more than hard to deciffer, but the above count is my best bet. If this count is correct, then we have just seen an important top at 113.21. The rally since mid-february 2009 is clearly corrective and fit my count that the decline from 147.27 to 33.55 was a five wave decline calling for a large zig-zag correction. If we do have just seen an important top at 113.21, the we should now see a five wave decline to below 33.55 to end the zig-zag from 147.27. 
On April 6. I asked if Apple was telling us something in regards to the stock market. See the link below.
The rally past 144.88 yesterday has forced me to change my micro-count slightly. The above count seems to fit the price-action better. If this count is correct we should see a red wave iv developing and then a final red wave v towards the 145.55 - 145.70 area before finally topping out for good.
The top could well be in place with the test of 144.88, but we still have no evidence, that the top is in place. Yes we have tested support at 143.81, but we haven't broken clearly below it to confirm the top. As long as 143.81 isn't broken we could see one more new high near the 145.25 - 145.50 area. Looking at the micro count since the top at 144.88, the decline does not look impulsive, which only leave us with one alternative to a impulsive wave i, which is some kind of Leading diagonal. If we have seen a Leading diagonal, it will of the expanding kind as wave (iii) was bigger than wave (i) and wave (v) bigger than wave (iii). Wave (iii) was 1.618 times longer than wave (i), while wave (v) was 1.27 times longer than wave (iii). If we have seen a Expanded Leading Diagonal, we should expect wave ii to retace a large part of wave i, as many will see this correction as an oppotunity to buy EUR again. 
My preferred count still is that we are in some kind of falling diagonal. If this count is correct we must not see a break above 146.95 as wave would make wave D bigger than wave B (see the light green lines), which is not allowed. Notis that the new high was not confirmed by the MACD indicator creating a negativ divergence. Making the smaller wave c at 138.61 the higste point at the MACD indicator. This is exactly what we will be looking for if we are to find an important top soon. 
Zooming in on the final part of the rally from 128.71. With Firdays rally to 144.88 all demands is now fulfiled. We have a five wave rally from 134.26. The possible ending diagonal from 140.05 has done everything rigth. Finally we have an overthrow in both the ending diagonal and the the resistance-line of the pitchfork. 
Zooming in further on the five minute chart and the rally from 142.40. We again can count a finished 5 wave rally, what's needed is a break below 144.38 and more importantly a break below 143.81, which will confirm that the top is in place. As long as 143.81 isn't broken to the donwside we could still see one more minor rally 145.25-145.50, but it's not the preferred micro-count at this point.
We saw a minor throw-over ending the Ending Diagonal yesterday, but failure to break clearly below 104.18 and the following new top, changes the micro count. The minor Ending Diagonal was "just" the end of red wave iii and we are now in red wave v. The double divergence at the MACD indicator has now evolved into a possible triple divergence. The possible target for the last rally is at 105.68. There is a possibility for a moonshot towards the 106.47 target, but I will not set my expectations to high for that target to be reached. I will use that as guide to where my stop-loss on shorts should be placed. 
We are in a topping process. A break below 130.52 will open the downside for a move towards at least the 128.84 - 129.31 area, but we could see a follow-through towards the 127.41 - 127.72 area. The big question here is whether we have seen a big flat correction from 124.00 or we have seen wave 1 and 2 and is now in wave 3, where sub-wave (i) finished at 132.36. I slightly favor the bullish scenario as wave 1 from 124.00 to 132.04 does look impulsive. The wave structure of the current decline will tell us which count is the right on. 
I haven't written about AUD since the end of January. Link to that post below: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/01/audusd-time-for-next-part-of-decline.html In that post I said, that a break above 102.53 would target the 105-106 area, which is where we are now. Therefore it's time to take a new look at the Aussie. First lets take a look at the monthly chart. The rally from the bottom at 47.73 in April 2001 to the top at 94.01 in November 2007 was a nice five wave rally. This rally was followed by an Expanded flat correction down to 60.04 in October 2008. Since then we have seen a new five wave rally up to 105.03 which means, that we now is in my target-zone. Therefore the obvious question will be, are we to find the top soon? 
Zooming in on the daily chart and the final rally since 60.04 we can see a clear five wave rally. We have double divergence at the MACD indicator and finaly we are looking at to resistance-lines just above. All pointing towards a top soon, but are we at the top? 
Zooming in further on the hourly chart and the last part of the rally since 97.04, we again can see a five wave rally into the target-zoon. The final rally seem to be an Ending Diagonal. I would like to see a throw-over the Ending Diagonal resistance-line followed by a break below 104.18, which will be the first minor confimation that the top is in place for a decline to at least 98.00 and probably 97.04. A clear break below 97.04 will extend the losses towards the top of the 87 area. 
First lets take a look at the monthly chart. The rally from 804.30 in 2000 to the top at 1,178.60 in 2008 is clearly in three waves. This rally most likely ended wave [A] (not shown on the chart). The following decline from 1,178.60 to the bottom at 869.30 is wave [B] (or an X wave if one prefer W-Y-Z). As wave [B] have "only" retraced 81% of wave [A] we are looking at an Zig-Zag. One could make a case, that we have only seen the wave 3 of C ending at 869.30 and we are now looking at wave 4 higher towards the 939.65 - 942.80 area. No matte which count is the rigth one, we are at least headed for 939.65 in the coming weeks/months. The daily chart below shows a clear break above the long term trend-line resistance. I would expect the rally from 869.30 picking up speed for the move higher towards 939.65. 
I have added some extra information to the short-term picture. First let me note, that my putting the different v's just above yesterdays top, doesn't nessesarily mean that we have seen the final top. As long as 142.50 protects the downside we still could see a move higher towards the 144.25 area. That said we have a lot of evidence in the short term picture, that the top could be in place with the test of 143.50. First we have time-equality (pink boxes) between wave (i) through wave (iii) and wave (v). Second we have double divergence between wave (iii) and wave (v) and a minor divergence between red wave iii and red wave v. Thrid we have broken above 142.81 and fourth we have a five wave Expanding Ending Diagonal, which has fulfiled all requirments. All points adding to a possible finished structure since 128.71. The only thing needed now is a break below 142.50, which would add to the probability that the top is in place. Any risks? Yes it's possible that the top at 143.50 only was red wave iii and we still need red wave iv and v. I don't prefer this count, but only a break below 140.59 would kill that possibility for good.
First lets take a look at the daily chart. We are currently "fighting" with the downtrend from 160.38. Even if we get a break above it I will only have to dismiss the above count if we see a break above 146.95. I do count the decline from 160.38 as an diagonal in which case wave D can't be longer than wave B, which allows for a move towards 146.95, but not above. 
Zooming in on the last part of the rally from 128.71 is in its final stages. The question whether we will see the top here or we will need a move closer to the channel resistance near 144.25. As wave iv and (iv) didn't break below the support-line I wouldn't expect wave v and (v) to break above the resistance-line. It could but doesn't have to. 
The Monthly chart is showing us a possible ended five wave rally since the low at 3.19 in 1997 to the high at 364.90 in early 2011. A rally of 361.71 points, that took 164 months (look how theres numbers gets very close to the Fibo-numbers 3.618 and 1.618) One should also note, that the final rally from the bottom of wave 4 from the channel support-line went to the channel mid-line, where it did stall. Finally on the long time chart it worth to notice, that wave 3 extended and was over 423.6 time the length of wave 1, while wave 5 became almost exactly 1.618 times longer than wave 3. All add confidence to a possible top or to a ongoing topping process. 
Looking at wave 5 going from a low at 78.20 to the high of 364.90. It too was a nice looking five wave rally. The break below the wave 2-4 channel support could be a warning, that the entire rally from 3.19 is over, but we need some more evidence, therefore zooming in even closer at the last part of the rally brings to the last chart below. 
As can be seen we have massive negative divergence on the MACD indicator, we have broken below the wave 2-4 supportline and we have a possible Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top. What we need is a break below support at 326, which will trigger the S/H/S top, but will at the samme time be the first confirmation that the above count is correct.
