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Tuesday, July 13, 2010

S&P 500 - It still lookes like a Ending Diagonal

Despite the strong surge today the best fit is still, that we are in the final stages of an Ending Diagonal. Yes we broke above the 61.8% retracement target at 1,085.50, but I just can't fit the beginning of the rally from 1,011.50 into something impulsive, so I stand by my count, but I really don't want to see a rally past 1,097. A daily close above 1,097 would make the entire move since May 25 look like an irregular flat correction. If this is the case, then we are more or less in the middle of wave C, which should then take us up to the 1,151 - 1,156 area. At this point it's not my favorite count.

If however 1,097 protects the upside for a break below 1,084.96 and more importantly 1,070 my preferred count will be confirmed and call for a new decline in wave 3.

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