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Friday, May 14, 2010

EUR/USD - My target area has been hit, but....

My target area between 123.28-124 has been hit, but the bigger picture is beginning to look like a possible acceleration to the downside could send EUR/USD down to 116.43 where wave [C] will equal wave [A] in length. As can be seen a very big Shoulder/Head/Shoulder formation could be building, which would call for a decline all the way to 88.35. The neckline of the S/H/S formation has been broken and thereby activated the formation, but I would like to see the bottom of the left shoulder broken, which in this case means a break below 116.38, just below the point where wave [C] and wave [A] is equal in length. If 116.38 is broken the next important point will be the 1.618 times the length of wave [A], which comes in at 91.63 just above the S/H/S target.



Even though the EUR/USD is becoming oversold and there is only about 2 percent bulls back i do think we will see 123.28 broken for a run closer towards the 116.38-116.43 area. If the possible fractals shown below is correct we should see a bigger rally before a pull back is seen.
Notice that the possible Shoulder/Head/Shoulder formation in the USD-Index hasn't been activated yet.


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