Friday, May 20, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY - Will be in an up-cycle till late March 2017

USD/JPY - Will be in an up-cycle till late March 2017 
We have been pretty much on top of USD/JPY since it bottomed in late 2011. Lately, I have been looking at some different things in regard to the long term picture and observed that a fixed cycle was in work. This cycle is 47 weeks long and shifts between a "up" and a "down/sideways" period. the last "down/sideways" period terminate at the exact low in the first week of May and if this cycle continues to work like it has for the last 4½ years, then we will be in an "up" cycle going forward to March 2017. This also fits the Elliott wave count perfectly as it calls for renewed upside pressure towards and above the top at 125.86 in the coming months.
To confirm that a long term bottom is in place, we need a break above resistance at 111.88, but when it breaks there should be no doubt about the long term direction.  

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