We didn't quite see the ideal target at 7,043 tested (the high has been 6,869.85), but the structure of the rally of the 5,933.30 indicates that a five wave rally in wave c of v is fulfilled and the risk is turning to the downside.
The upper chart shows the weekly price action of the Nifty 50 and as can be seen above I regard the rally of the October 2008 low at 2,252.75 to Aprils high at 6,869.85 as wave 5. Wave v of 5 turned into an ending diagonal, where we saw a small throw over, which is pretty common for this type of pattern.
At this point in time, the first part of the major correction I'm looking for could be an expanded flat correction which will make it possible for wave b to reach the ideal target at 7,043, but that is pure speculation on my side as I have no evidence of that outcome presently.
Short term I will be looking for a break below support at 6,415 as the first strong indication that a long term top is in place, but a break below 5,933.30 is needed to confirm the top of a powerful decline back towards the origin of the ending diagonal at 4,531.15 and lower longer term.
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ReplyDeleteHi,
DeleteI don't really know how I can help you, but write me at ews@elliottwavesurfer.com and lets us see if there might be a way.
Kind regards
EWS
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ReplyDeleteHi Nishita,
DeleteThank you very much. I really appreciate your feed-back.
I will keep updating this blog.
Kind regards
EWS
Already 7000+ on nifty today
ReplyDeleteAnd usd inr at 59.50
Surfer what next?