Elliott wave analysis of USD/CHF - Correcting before higher again

USD/CHF correcting before higher again

Since the fifth wave failure at 0.8700 we have seen a nice five wave rally to 0.8960. This five wave rally broke slightly above the reflex point at 0.8953, which is a very strong indication, that after a correction a new impulsive rally higher towards at least 0.9119 and likely even higher towards 0.9280 in wave (iii) should be expected.

I do think the most likely target for the correction will be at the 38.2% corrective target at 0.8859, but we will have to allow for a deeper correction towards the 50% and maybe even the 61.8% corrective targets. The reason why I think a 38.2% correction will be enough, is the very strong rally of the 0.8700 low, but often wave two becomes a deep correction, as the battle between the bulls and the bears is still almost equal. However, the Elliott Wave Principle tells us, that we should expect a three wave correction after an impulsive five wave rally and once this three wave correction is over a new five wave rally should be seen.

Looking at the larger picture. A large ending diagonal terminated at 0.8700. Normally we a quick return to the origin of the ending diagonal will be seen, which in this case is at 0.9839. As a rule it should take about half the time to get back to the origin of the ending diagonal, as it has taken to develop the pattern. The ending diagonal has been developing over the last year, which means that we within the next six month should test resistance at 0.9839. However longer term I'm looking for an even bigger rally.

PS! I have just notified my members of the Elliott Wave Surfer Service that the blow off top in Nifty 50 is over and that we have a major bottom in EUR/NZD in place.

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