Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; Gold and Crude Oil

I'm back! We had a very nice and relaxing trip to Turkey. We saw a lot and enjoyed the great hospitality of the Turkish people. It's nice to be back and I hope you have enjoyed some nice Trading opportunities.

EUR/USD

My preferred Count shows, that wave E of the huge B-wave triangle that have been forming since 2009 ended at 1.3832 in late October, but for this Count to be right we need resistance in the 1.3627 - 1.3675 area to protect the upside for a break below 1.3295 and more importantly below 1.3105, which will confirm that a new impulsive decline has begun. However. until the break below 1.3295 we have to be aware, that the decline from 1.3832 could be an other X-wave and one last rally in wave Z could be seen.

USD/JPY

The triangle breakout towards the upside, has been confirmed by the break above the D-wave high at 100.22 and we should now see a continuation higher over the coming weeks towards 106.50.
Short term I'm looking for green wave iii to move higher towards at least 101.71 and maybe even higher towards 103.06, but that is less likely. Only a break below 99.75 will invalidate the above Count.

Gold

 

The triangle Count could still be alive, but we could also be looking at an ending diagonal as wave five lower. It's still to early to tell, but I think it's safe to say, that we shall see more downside before the decline from 1,920.74 is finally over.



Crude Oil

I'm still looking for blue wave C to develop lower towards 77.40 and maybe slightly lower towards 74.89 before the next attempt higher should be seen. Currently we are in wave iii of 3 lower towards 89.93. This final wave C could either fall short of its ideal target or it could overshoot its downside target, so we just will have to keep a close Count as wave C develops.