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Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

 EUR/JPY

The rally of the 129.46 low became much higher than I expected, but even a test of 131.40 does not change the larger picture. We are still in a major wave 2 correction from 133.81 and the ideal target for this correction is at 118.73, where wave 2 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 1. The big question is how do we get down to 118.73? Corrections very seldom unfolds in a simple and easy way. What looks in one way one day has taken a hole new shape the next day, but if we just keep our focus on the main target we somehow will get there. I think the best way to count this detour to 131.40 will be as a wave ii of C and if this count is correct we should expect acceleration towards the downside very soon and we will not like to stand on the sideline, while wave iii unfolds, as this is where the best part of the decline shall be found. The minimum target for wave iii is at 128.80, but I think that an extension in wave iii will be more likely and that would call for a decline to 127.19 if not lower. Short term we expect resistance at 130.71 to protect the upside.

EUR/NZD

As we expected a new high has been made and I'm still looking for new highs to be made as wave iii unfolds. Currently we are about to end green wave v near 1.6452, but that would only end blue wave iii and after a small sideways correction we shall see new highs. As we are in wave iii it should be expected that the corrections shall be small  and even sub-normal and therefore, are best left alone. Yes one can be lucky from time to time a make a profit during the corrections, but the risk is that you are left standing at the train station when the train has left. The big profit is made in the direction of the trend, which is clearly up here. When looking at the larger picture I would like to see a daily and even better a weekly close above 1.6358, which will call for a continuation higher towards at least 1.7751 longer term. 

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