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Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - We now have got confirmation, that we saw a truncation at 145.46, with the break below 140.54. In the very short term the EUR looks a bit oversold, but it is dangerous to go against the trend which has now turned down. Short term we could see a minor move higher towards the 141.25 area. The next area of interest is near 139.68 a break below here should accelerate the decline towards 128.71.


Gold - We are now above the August high at 1,911.46. The last part of the rally looks very weak. We have double divergence on the MACD-indicator and are facing resistance near 1,925. This is not the time to buy gold as we should soon see wave C lower. If my count is correct we are looking at a flat correction, but it could be a expanding flat, so use a break below 1,900 as a warning that the top is in place and wave C under way. A break below 1,870 will confirm the top.


Crude Oil - We are at the next minor support, but it should only be a question of time before it's broken and the next minor targets at 79.25 and 76 is in sight. Longer term my target is near 72, which should terminate wave 1 down. That said there is an alternate count, which suggest a direct decline towards support at 64.25 and 72 just being a minor stop at the way down. Time will show which is right.

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